The Quartz guide to Super Bowl 2013 betting

• The odds of the San Francisco 49ers winning the Super Bowl by more than 4 points (62%) are slightly better than the odds of the movie “Argo” winning the Academy Award for Best Picture (60.7%).
• The odds of the Baltimore Ravens beating the spread—either by winning outright or losing by less than four points—(41%) aren’t as good as the chances of the Republican party winning the 2016 presidential election (47.4%).
• The odds that the first pass thrown by 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick will be incomplete or intercepted by the other team (40%) are the same as the odds of the Dow Jones closing at or above 14,250 by the end of February (40%). 
• The odds that the first score of the game will be a 49ers touchdown pass (18.2%) are roughly the same as the odds that Germany’s Social Democratic Union will win the country’s chancellorship in the 2013 German federal elections (18.5%)
• The odds that the player to score the first touchdown will be Baltimore running back Ray Rice (9%) are about the same as the odds that Mario Monti will be elected Italy’s Prime Minister in 2013 (9%).  
• The odds that Baltimore wide receiver Torrey Smith will win the game’s Most Valuable Player award (5%) are roughly the same as the odds that Japan will announce that has acquired a nuclear weapon by the end of 2013 (5%). 
• The odds that the game’s Most Valuable Player will thank his family before anyone else (14%) are about the same as the odds that Ang Lee will win the Academy Award for Best Director for “Life of Pi” (14%). 
• Notably, the two teams are coached by brothers, Jim and John Harbaugh. The odds that Jim will be shown on television before John (55.5%) are slightly better than the odds that Bashar al-Assad won’t be Syria’s president by the end of June 2013 (55%). 
• The odds that Gatorade dumped on the winning coach will be lime green (15%) are slightly more favorable than the chances that  the United States and/or Israel will launch an air strike against Iran before the end of June (14%).

And the comparison to the the odds that the United Kingdom’s economy will go into recession in 2013 (77%)? No one will take odds like that gambling on sports.