Apple’s next iPhone will probably come with a price hike, analyst says

The iPhone 17 doesn’t have a release date just yet, but analysts at Jefferies said Thursday they expect a $50 increase on its Slim, Pro, and Pro Max options, in order to “offset higher component costs and China tariff.” The increase would represent a 4% to 5% hike from last year, but the analysts don’t expect a price hike on the base model.

Jefferies analysts came to the number by combining an estimate for the average cost of materials, which they said might rise by $20 to $25, and calculating the impact of tariffs in China, which they said could be a 2.5% increase or $25. They noted that the $50 projected increase “may barely cover the above cost increases,” adding that tariff impact at its current rate in China could actually add 8% due to China’s 20% fentanyl tariff and assuming 40% of the new model would be made in China. 

China currently has a tariff rate of 30%. The U.S. is in talks with the country to renegotiate a trade deal by Friday. 

Apple is transitioning its operations from China to India, with hopes of building all U.S.-sold iPhones in India by the end of 2026, but India is still negotiating a new tariff rate with the U.S. On Wednesday President Donald Trump threatened to place a 25% rate on the country.

Still, Jefferies analysts project Apple might end up making 18% of iPhone 17s in India in the second half of 2025, but their price hike estimate doesn’t include any impact from tariffs.

They added that although a price increase for the new model is likely, it’s “not enough of a positive to re-rate the stock.” Apple stock has been down about 15% so far this year. On Thursday, it opened at $208.49 but has since dipped slightly throughout the day. 

Apple is set to announce its third-quarter earnings on Thursday after the bell. Wall Street hopes to get answers on the tech giant’s AI moves plus any tariff impacts.