Ground beef hit $8.62 per pound, up more than 12% from a year ago, as the U.S. cattle herd sits at a 75-year low
Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images
American consumers are heading into the Fourth of July holiday weekend facing record beef prices — and largely paying them anyway. At $8.62 per pound in May, ground beef prices were 12% higher than a year earlier, while steak ran $12.80 per pound. Steak prices amounted to a 16% annual jump that ranked as the second-highest price ever recorded, according to CNBC.
The U.S. cattle herd has contracted to its lowest point in 75 years, a decline driven by years of drought, high feed costs, and herd liquidation. The path back to larger herds is long: it takes a minimum of two years from the moment a producer begins holding back female heifers for breeding before those animals are ready for processing, and many ranchers had been sending cattle to slaughter rather than setting any aside to reproduce. A ban on Mexican cattle imports, put in place more than a year ago because of a flesh-eating parasite outbreak, has further squeezed supplies, according to Reuters.
Despite the prices, consumer demand has held firm. No other food category tracked by NielsenIQ has added more dollars in sales in the run-up to Independence Day — beef revenue climbed by roughly $352 million over the same period last year, the consumer research firm reported. Kroger told CNBC that customer demand for steaks has remained high, with a shift toward premium and organic options, and that beef continued to be a preferred choice during Easter and Memorial Day.
Steak has taken on the character of an "affordable luxury" in NielsenIQ's framing — something shoppers treat as a splurge worth making even as they hunt for savings in other parts of the store. Quality attributes ranked high in NielsenIQ's shopper data: 42% of respondents named USDA Prime as a factor in their meat purchases, followed by no added hormones at 40% and grass-fed at 37%, according to CNBC.
The American Farm Bureau Federation estimated the cost of a July 4 cookout for 10 people at $73.82 this year, a 4% increase from 2025 and the highest since the survey began in 2016. Two pounds of ground beef in the survey cost $14.06, up 5.5% from last year. The Wells Fargo $WFC Agri-Food Institute put the total cost of a summer barbecue for 10 at $161, with hamburger beef up 14%.
Some shoppers have shifted toward chicken and pork to save money. Chicken breasts came in at $8.06 for a two-pound package — a 3.5% increase — and a three-pound portion of pork chops cost $14.79, reflecting a 4.7% rise, according to the Farm Bureau survey. "For anybody who is feeling a little bit stressed, open up your recipe book and get a few new options," Michael Swanson, Wells Fargo's chief agricultural economist, said.
The Trump administration has taken several steps to address beef prices, including moving to suspend tariff-rate quotas on beef imports from all exporting countries to allow more foreign beef into the U.S. at lower tariff rates, and directing the Justice Department to investigate whether meatpackers are colluding to raise prices. Domestic cattle producers have pushed back against expanded imports, arguing the approach undercuts American ranchers.
Join 500,000+ readers who start their day with Quartz.
By subscribing, you agree to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.
