Inflation accelerated in September as Wall Street finally gets some fresh data

U.S. consumer prices rose in September, underlining the stubbornness of inflation as the Federal Reserve heads into a key policy meeting next week.

The consumer price index rose 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, after a 0.4% gain in August. The data release came after a delay caused by the federal government shutdown, which has left policy makers, economists and businesses to operate without the usual steady release of government economic data.

Annual inflation in September hit 3% from a year earlier, the fastest pace since January and broadly in line with economists’ surveyed by Dow Jones. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, climbed 0.2% in September and was running 3% higher than a year ago.

Wall Street had been eagerly awaiting Friday's numbers amid a shortage of fresh economic data since the government shutdown began on Oct. 1. The CPI will also have an outsized impact on next week's Fed meeting, as it's the first major economic report to be released since the shutdown, and will be one of the only indicators of the health of the economy.

Gasoline costs were a large factor driving the monthly gain, rising 4.1%, with energy prices up 1.5% overall. Food prices jumped 0.2%, after rising 0.5% in August. The dairy and related products index declined 0.5% percent in September, as the cheese and related products index decreased 0.7% percent. The index for fruits and vegetables was unchanged.

Heating inflation vs. cooling labor market

Despite economists expecting that the CPI would rise, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s trading desk yesterday estimated around a 65% chance the S&P 500 Index will rise following the report. That's because, despite the stickiness of core inflation, markets are optimistic that the Fed's meeting next week will result in an interest-rate cut due to concerns about a cooling labor market.

While the Bureau of Labor Statistics has not been able to publish unemployment data for September due to the shutdown, there were already signs that the labor market was cooling, driven mostly by reluctant hiring that economists have attributed to the Trump' administration's trade policies. The unemployment rate ticked higher in August to 4.3, the highest level since late 2021. There have also been more recent clues. The number of new applications for state unemployment benefits rose last week to a seasonally adjusted 232,000, from 220,000 the prior week, economists at Citigroup and Nationwide calculated on Thursday, Reuters reports.

“A hotter print might give them pause at the December meeting,” Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, told Bloomberg on Thursday. “Given their focus right now is on the labor market, which continues to cool, an October cut seems prudent. But after that it gets a little more open-ended, although we believe they will also cut in December.”

Trump vs. the data

Friday's report is also a crucial barometer for how President Donald Trump's tariffs are impacting prices. Polls show voters view inflation as their biggest economic concern, with Trump’s approval on the issue falling below 30% in some surveys. Despite writing on Truth Social in September that there is "virtually no inflation," echoing his campaign promises to reduce prices on "day one" of taking office, the numbers paint a different picture.

A new Harris poll just over 2,000 Americans shows that people are reporting soaring prices and are increasingly concerned about the economy. When asked how much their monthly household costs have gone up from last year, almost three-quarters of those surveyed said they had seen increases of at least $100, and 40% said $500 to $749. The findings align with those of the Yale Budget Lab, whose economists have calculated that households will see an average increase of $2,300 in annual costs due to Trump’s tariffs – an average of $191 per month.