Former President Donald Trump’s plans to slash taxes are expected to “dramatically” weaken Social Security’s finances — and make the program insolvent three years ahead of schedule.
The Social Security Administration (SSA), the government agency that administers the program’s benefits to Americans, expects its coffers to be depleted by 2035, according to a May report. But proposals Trump has made on the campaign trail would exhaust Social Security by 2031 or 2032 at the latest, according to a report released Monday by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB).
As of 2024, almost 68 million Americans receive a check from the SSA each month. The vast majority of those people are at least 65 years old and many depend entirely on the program for income after retiring, the National Institution on Retirement Security found in 2020.
“SENIORS SHOULD NOT PAY TAX ON SOCIAL SECURITY!” the Republican presidential nominee wrote in July on his social media platform, Truth Social.
Recipients of benefits must pay federal income taxes if their combined income is higher than $25,000 each year if they file individually, or $32,000 for joint filers. That revenue helps helps fund the Social Security and Medicare Hospital Insurance trust funds.
Without that funding — combined with the many other tax cuts Trump has proposed — and the former president’s plans to impose massive tariffs and deport unauthorized immigrants, Social Security’s funding will be cut by as much as $2.75 trillion.
Ending taxation of Social Security benefits alone could cut between $850 billion and $950 billion from its cash reserves, while ending taxes on overtime pay and tips would slash anywhere between $150 billion and $1.05 trillion. Heavily restricting immigration and imposing tariffs would reduce the balance by between $300 billion and $750 billion, according to the CRFB.
After Social Security is insolvent, the program’s spending would be limited and likely result in a $16,500 cut in annual benefits for the typical dual-income couple retiring in 2033, the CRFB said.
Under current laws, benefits would have to be cut by 23% by 2035, according to the Congressional Budget office. Trump’s plans would raise that benefit cut to 33% by 2035, according to the CRFB. Although, some beneficiaries would likely see their real after-tax benefits cut by smaller percentages.
In the past, Trump has said he will “not cut one cent” from the program, nor will he change the retirement age. In a town hall last year, he proposed taking advantage of the “incredible wealth under our feet” by drilling for more oil and natural gas to grow the economy. However, that would cover less than 4% of Social Security’s shortfall, the CRFB said last year, noting that opening up “all federal land” to drilling couldn’t solve that problem.