Hi, Quartz Africa readers!
Housekeeping
On the face of it, 2018 is going to be a good year for sub Saharan Africa’s economies. The World Bank forecasts growth of 3.2% for the year, up from 2.4% in 2017. It also predicts slightly higher growth for 2019 of 3.5%.
As usual much of that growth will still rely on improving commodity prices and executing economic reforms. But it’s all rather delicately balanced. World Bank thinks a drop in commodity prices, higher-than-expected global interest rate rises and the ongoing debt mismanagement by some countries could set the region back.
Ultimately, as Brookings points out (pdf) in its Foresight Africa 2018 report, half of sub Saharan Africa’s economies will grow at a rate similar to or higher than during the heyday of the “Africa rising” narrative, which was in the run-up to the commodity price crash of 2014.
The region’s growth is higher, at 5%, if you exclude the big three economies of Nigeria, Angola and South Africa. The first two, as the continent’s largest oil producers, should see accelerated expansion as oil prices recover this year. Brent crude hit a high of $70 this past week. That’s good news for president Buhari’s 2019 re-election bid in Nigeria and the reform agenda of Angola’s still new president Lourenço—after 38 years of president dos Santos. The World Bank says South Africa will expand by 1.1% compared with 0.8% last year while Nigeria should grow by 2.5% from 1% in 2017. Angola will expand by 1.6%.
But the big economies have to get their act together says Brahima Coulibaly, director of Brookings’ Africa Growth Initiative: “These large economies are at risk of a lost decade unless policymakers implement significant reforms to shift the growth model away from excessive reliance on oil in Angola and Nigeria and, in the case of South Africa, to overcome structural problems—many inherited from the apartheid era.”
It makes sense. Most of 2018’s top performers are non-commodity intensive economies. The list is led by Ghana (8.3%), which we should point out is boosted by oil & gas expansion, Ethiopia (8.2%), Côte d’Ivoire (7.2%), Djibouti (7%), Senegal (6.9%) and Tanzania (6.8%).
But both World Bank and Brookings warn that many of the region’s economies—regardless of size or growth rate—need to pay more attention to debt management in 2018. IMF chief Christine Lagarde made this perfectly clear in her interview with us last month. Public debt is approaching critical levels in some countries in the region, says Brookings. Debt was at 56% of GDP on average in 2017 versus 40% in 2013.
— Yinka Adegoke, Quartz Africa editor
Stories from this week
The erudite football manager who inspired Liberia’s new president. In the late 1980s, Liberia’s president-elect George Weah moved to France to play for soccer club Monaco under the guidance of legendary French coach Arsene Wenger. As Yomi Kazeem points out, Weah often credits Wenger for not only launching his global stardom but also for his personal growth as a man.
South Africa’s gated communities echo apartheid-era segregation. Palatial townhouses, security guards, private schools and recreational facilities have come to define gated communities of Johannesburg. While resonating with apartheid-era security and exclusivity measures, Lynsey Chutel explains how these privatized communities also contribute to the detriment of public services.
Apple, Tesla and VW need cobalt for their batteries, so DR Congo wants more mining taxes. Cobalt is extensively used in the production of batteries that are key to the future of leading companies like Apple, Tesla, and Volkswagen. And with the mineral’s price surging, the DR Congo now wants to almost double the tax royalties it collects from mining companies.
African passport holders can’t get very far—but intra-continental air travel could get easier, so could finding somewhere to stay. Africans hold the least powerful passports in the world, with passport indices showing their continuous overall decline. But as more African nations remove visa restrictions and encourage integration, the African Union is stepping in to establish a single air travel market to lower airfares, create jobs, and allow for the free mobility of people and goods. Nigeria’s Hotels.ng wants to make it easier for mid-price range African travelers to find places to stay by expanding across the service continent.
In just three months, Cape Town will be the first major world city to run out of water. A multi-year drought has led to a shortage of water in Cape Town, threatening to cut off its taps by April this year. As Zoë Schlanger writes, the city’s water crisis is no longer looming; it’s already here.
The small African nation leading the defiance against Trump. Botswana might be home to just 2.2 million people but its leadership punches above its weight in standing up to Donald Trump. Whether responding to his crude comments about Africa or defying him at the United Nations, Botswana has stood taller than many of its bigger African counterparts.
Chart of the Week
The story of happy Africans is more complex than we think. Over the last few years, several global attitude surveys have shown that Africans were the most positive and exceptionally optimistic about the future than others. But given the subjective nature of happiness, the reasons behind why more African citizens consider themselves happy and hopeful is more nuanced than we think, writes Abdi Latif Dahir.
Other Things We Liked
Nairobi’s air pollution mirrors the urban air crisis looming over African cities. With its growing population, secondhand cars, burning rubbish, and wood-fired stoves, Nairobi’s air pollution is a major concern for experts. As John Vidal reports for the Guardian, this urban crisis is prescriptive of what’s happening in other African cities.
How geneticists help fight poaching in Africa. Poaching has intensified across Africa with an estimated 20,000 to 30,000 elephants being killed each year for their tusks. In the New York Times, Gina Kolata reports on how DNA databases of rhinos and elephants are helping solve poaching crimes and preventing future killings.
The first African startups to showcase at CES. Through the “Africa Tech Now” event, African start-ups participated in the largest consumer electronics trade in Las Vegas this week. For NPR, Kristy Totten visited the African startups at the conference who were showcasing innovative products.
Keep an eye on
Kenyan opposition leaders meet in the shadow of a supposed swearing-in ceremony. (Jan. 15) The opposition National Super Alliance will meet to sort out a perceived rift between themselves and discuss the swearing in of their leader Raila Odinga on Jan. 30—heightening the political standoff in the East African nation.
South Africa to announce interest rates (Jan. 18). South Africa’s Reserve Bank is expected to announce interest rates, with a Reuters poll of economists showing the bank will leave the current rate of 6.75%, despite the rand’s strong move against the dollar in recent weeks.
African ambassadors to convene following Trump offensive comments. Ambassadors from several African nations in Washington DC are expected to meet to discuss a response to Donald Trump’s railing against immigrants from Central America and Africa.
*This brief was produced while listening to Omo Dudu by Black Motion feat. Wunmi (South Africa/Nigeria).
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