Hello Quartz readers,
There’s a theme to your recent coronavirus questions: How can testing help me get back to my life?
Maybe you received conflicting test results, or positive test results without showing symptoms. Perhaps you thought you had Covid-19 months ago, but now you’ve got symptoms anew. Should you get tested? And what about getting tested after exposure? Do it right away? After two weeks? Every two weeks?
The answers to these questions are complicated. To start, there are two types of test: antibody, which detects an immune response to the virus that might take time to show up; and diagnostic, where the results are more conclusive. With the former, you can test positive long after you’ve recovered; with the latter, you only test positive as long as the virus is in your body. Making things more complex, the availability and price points of these tests can vary widely. And we still don’t know everything about the virus itself, including the scope or duration of immunity.
Which brings us to the most important piece of enduring wisdom: When in doubt, behave as if you have Covid-19. Even the possibility of spreading a dangerous virus to someone you love should be argument enough to keep playing it safe.
Basket case study
Inflation in the United States was -0.7% in April, officially speaking. That would normally indicate a 0.7% decline in the average price of goods and services purchased by Americans between March and April. But one of the world’s leading inflation researchers says Covid-19 has knocked that number way out of whack.
The pandemic has radically changed what Americans are buying. People are spending a lot more money on food at grocery stores and a lot less on transportation, healthcare, and clothing. Also, since overall spending is down, housing costs now represent a larger share of most people’s expenditures.
Inflation numbers are based on changes in the cost of a typical “basket” of goods and services. Since consumption habits evolve, that basket is updated annually—for example, it reflects that spending on music streaming has surpassed spending on CDs. But inflation metrics haven’t been able to react quickly enough to the pandemic. The most recent basket adjustment (re-weaving?) happened in December 2019, and was based on consumption data from 2017 and 2018.
In a new study, Harvard Business School economist Alberto Cavallo attempted a fresher adjustment. Cavallo used credit and debit card data collected by research group Opportunity Insights to determine what people are spending money on, and then calculated the inflation of these products. He found that inflation only fell 0.1% in April, a 0.6% difference from the government’s official figure. The official numbers show no inflation in May, but Cavallo finds an increase of over 0.1%.
Cavallo also looked into how Covid-19 purchasing habits are affecting inflation in 16 other countries. His adjusted figures were higher than official ones in 10 of them.
These are no minor quibbles—accurately measuring inflation is key to public policy. “The two most important economic indicators are employment and inflation,” Cavallo says. Unemployment shows that people are losing their incomes, and inflation shows that sometimes prices rise faster on the things people are buying most. Central banks and governments must recognize that if the cost of living is higher than official numbers suggest, Covid-19 aid packages might not go as far as they think.
Sorry, you go ahead
Once a clunky technology without enough payoff, videoconferencing has swiftly become an essential part of our lives. And while it may seem like a concept tailor-made for the modern pandemic, humans have actually spent over a century imagining phone calls with our faces. Here’s a brief history:
1878: George du Maurier publishes a cartoon in Punch magazine of the “telephonoscope,” a fictional invention from Thomas Edison that transmits images along with sound.
1964: Bell Labs debuts the Picturephone, which requires that both parties make advance reservations, travel to one of the nation’s few designated Picturephone booths, and remain motionless for the duration of the call.
1993: The first “webcam” makes its public debut; it’s used to monitor a coffee pot at the University of Cambridge.
2006: Skype (short for “sky peer to peer”) adds videoconferencing.
2010: FaceTime emerges from an Apple gaming social network.
2019: Zoom prices its IPO at $36 a share. The stock, er, zoomed up 72% upon its market debut, and closed today at $259.51.
??: Hologram meetings take over, thanks to virtual reality headsets.
Discover more with our Obsession email on videoconferencing. And sign up for the Weekly Obsession to learn about everything from seatbelts to phenology.
Look who’s talking
Let’s take a pop quiz. Who said this?
The coronavirus pandemic has revealed “increasing uncertainty surrounding the future demand for oil,” coupled with “increasing attractiveness of stable returns from some renewables.”
🇦 Ben van Beurden, CEO of Shell
🇧 Ben Ratner, a director at the Environmental Defense Fund
🇨 Eldar Sætre of Norwegian energy company Equinor
🇩 Dan Brouillette, the US secretary of energy
Answer: A pleasantly surprising 🇦. For some oil and gas producers, particularly in Europe, the pandemic is a signal that peak oil demand may be closer than they thought—or even in the rearview mirror (✦ Quartz member exclusive).
Speaking of increased attractiveness, there’s no better time to become a Quartz member. With our summer sale, you can also take 50% off your first year. It’s like a cool beverage on a hot day, but for your 🧠.
Nobody wants to visit the US
The US has more confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths than any country in the world. It’s no surprise, then, that international tourism has plummeted. Spending by foreign visitors declined by 77% in April compared to the same month last year, and there’s little hope May or June will be better.
This isn’t just a loss for students and would-be tourists—it’s also an economic problem. Tourism brings billions of dollars into the US each year, equal to more than a tenth of all its exports.
“Other countries are starting to think about resuming international travel,” Caitlin Rivers, a JHU epidemiologist tweeted last week. “The US will be seen as too risky. Another way we are losing economic ground by not controlling our outbreak.”
Man mutes dog
At 7pm each day, Raghav Chabra, a 28-year-old accountant in Delhi, spends an hour with his golden retriever Franny. An hour on Skype, that is. Franny lives in a farmhouse on the outskirts of the city.
Virtual pet adoption is a growing trend in India, as lockdowns and social distancing lead to a heightened sense of isolation. Volunteers from NGOs or pet shelters care for the animals—Franny is looked after by the Ummeed Social Welfare Society, an Uttar Pradesh-based NGO—and for roughly Rs3,000 ($39) a month, sponsors can receive updates and participate in virtual or IRL visits.
“Talking to Franny and knowing that he is healthy and happy gives me the assurance that at least something is normal,” says Chabra. “When it’s safe to go outdoors, I’m planning an entire weekend with him.”
Essential reading
- The latest 🌏 figures: 9,506,788 confirmed cases; 4,786,056 classified as “recovered.”
- Mapped out: Where are the US communities most vulnerable to Covid-19?
- Ballot boxing: Malawi’s do-over election is fraught with coronavirus complications.
- Sacré bleu: Paris Fashion Week is happening.
- Unmasked: Floridians are furious about the “devil’s law” that mandates face masks.
Our best wishes for a healthy day. Get in touch with us at reply@qz.com, and live your best Quartz life by downloading our app and becoming a member. Today’s newsletter was brought to you by Katie Palmer, Dan Kopf, Heather Landy, Tim McDonnell, Michael Coren, Tim Fernholz, Niharika Sharma, and Kira Bindrim.