Hi Quartz readers,
Think of the US labor market as a wild house party. It’s not just one-in, one-out at the main entrance; people are switching rooms, popping in the side door, falling out the windows, and sneaking in again through the back. In other words, Americans are quitting at the highest rate in decades after the pandemic prompted them to reevaluate what they want from an employer, amid a record high for US job openings.
Many workers are also showing their independence from the labor market by bidding it adieu entirely. Three million Americans retired in the first six months of the pandemic, during which the share of Americans in retirement jumped from about 18.5% to 19.5%.
Economists who study the labor market say this is likely just a one-off: People who would have retired anyway in the next few years saw the economy shut down and decided to leave the workforce early. Some may have been delaying retirement already to benefit from the hot economy pre-Covid.
But in the medium term, this surge in retirees may screw up calculations geared at managing the macroeconomy. Economists estimate the US is about 7 million jobs in the hole, an assumption that depends on the share of the population who wants to work returning to its pre-pandemic level. If some of those 3 million retirees aren’t coming back, policymakers may be overshooting with employment incentives—and that could lead to rising wages and prices.
There are other indicators to suggest plenty of slack remaining in the labor market, including the 3.8 million Americans who have been unemployed for six months or more. Investors and analysts will be watching the June jobs report, released July 2, for more nuanced signals. But it may also be time to grapple with the fact that a lot of people won’t be coming back to work at all. —Tim Fernholz
You asked
The Delta variant is kind of freaking me out.
That’s not technically a question, but we get it! The Delta variant accounts for an increasing number of new infections around the world, and there’s preliminary data to suggest current vaccines may not be as effective against it. It is also more transmissible than other variants: Delta’s spike protein mutations make it the “fastest and fittest” variant yet, according to the WHO.
But at this stage of the pandemic, the variant’s impact on you personally depends on where you are, where you might need to go, and whether or not you’ve been vaccinated. Countries with high vaccination rates are seeing an increase in cases, though mostly mild, and public health experts are investigating whether vaccine booster shots will be needed. Countries with low vaccination rates, on the other hand, are seeing both cases and deaths increase.
To protect yourself and others, the WHO says vaccinated people should continue to wear masks (less than two months after the CDC advised otherwise). “Vaccines alone won’t stop community transmission,” WHO assistant director-general Mariangela Simao said during a briefing last week. “People need to continue to use masks consistently, be in ventilated spaces, [practice] hand hygiene, [maintain] physical distance, [and] avoid crowding.”
Six talking points
💰 The number of global millionaires increased during the pandemic. But unless you live in one of these three countries, you’re unlikely to bump into one.
✈️ Hong Kong banned passenger flights from the UK. Activists worry the ban could interfere with the migration of Hong Kongers hoping to escape increasingly restrictive politics.
🛳️ Passengers are flocking back to cruise ships. Carnival may be burning through $500 million a month, but its bookings for 2022 are already ahead of bookings for 2019. They cost more, too.
📈 The Fed’s 2% inflation target comes from a casual remark. Now it’s global gospel: The Bank of England is so devoted to 2% that its governor must write a letter to the chancellor of the Exchequer if inflation moves more than a percentage point in either direction.
🧒 Children needed 615 billion extra hours of care during the pandemic. To accommodate that collective figure, women aged 15-64 added, on average, more than a month of full-time work to their schedule.
💉 A vaccine may be required to work. Morgan Stanley is one of many large employers who (with some legal exceptions) will require employees to be vaccinated, ban unvaccinated workers from their offices, and/or ask employees about their vaccination status.
Olympics interlude
We’re less than a month from the Tokyo Olympics, and there’s already a lot to follow. New dad Ryan Lochte failed to qualify for Team USA. Japan backed off its forecast of 30 gold medals. Serena Williams backed off the event entirely. Remember, if you’re looking for a pop-up guide to the Games, Need to Know: Tokyo Olympics is the email your inbox needs.
Pop quiz
Can you match the median home price to its city?
As some countries emerge from the pandemic, many of the world’s major cities are seeing a boom in real estate prices. Wealthy buyers in particular are driving up demand for new and existing housing across Asia, Europe, and the US. We looked at what’s happening with housing prices in cities around the world, then decided to keep renting forever.
How to quit calculus
As mentioned earlier, US workers are leaving their jobs at the highest rate in decades. Should you join them? Use advice from four Quartz-tapped experts—and one Quartz-built chatbot—to help you decide whether it’s time to move on.
Planting the birdseed
An increase in bird watching around the world was one of the rare heartening consequences of lockdowns last year. Now that economies are opening up, it’d be reasonable to expect birds to lose their newfound fans. But data from Wikipedia and Audubon suggests the binoculars are here to stay.
Essential reading
- The latest 🌏 figures: 181.5 million confirmed cases; 3.9 million deaths; 3.0 billion vaccine doses administered.
- Homecoming dance: India’s “vaccine prince” is finally back in the country.
- Making it public: Nearly half of Americans are now on public healthcare.
- Trial offer: A cancer drug is being used to treat Covid-19 in India.
- Real talk: The best explanation yet of why Covax is failing Africa.
- Just wondering: What will we do with all that plexiglass?
- Covid keeping you up at night? This tech wants to help you sleep.
- PS: We’re off next week. Stay safe until we see you again.
Our best wishes for a healthy day. Get in touch with us at needtoknow@qz.com, and live your best Quartz life by downloading our iOS app and becoming a member. Today’s newsletter was brought to you by Tim Fernholz, Manavi Kapur, Camille Squires, Nicolas Rivero, David Yanofsky, Lila MacLellan, and Kira Bindrim.