Dear readers,
Welcome to Quartz’s newsletter on the economic possibilities of the extraterrestrial sphere. Please forward widely, and let me know what you think. This week: Artemis Accords, OneWeb on the auction block, and Ligado isn’t over yet.
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This week, China successfully launched its powerful new rocket, the Long March 5B, making possible ambitious space missions like an orbital habitat and robotic exploration on Mars.
The Long March 5, developed by China’s Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, suffered a failure during its second flight in 2017, only returning to flight again in December 2019. The 5B variant used in this launch is designed for carrying large payloads to low-Earth orbit. In the US, it compares to the SpaceX Falcon Heavy or the United Launch Alliance Delta IV Heavy.
Questions about China’s space power and space plans are driving big changes in the industry. NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine said at an event this week that after China landed a robot on the far side of the moon last year, lawmakers called to ask him if China was surpassing the US in space exploration and technology. The new US Space Force (real and fictional) was formed in part due to worries about China’s growing anti-space capabilities.
It’s worth throwing some cold water on this idea though, as Bridenstine did: China still has a ways to go to catch up with US space capabilities. It’s near-term goals—creating an orbital space station and putting a robot on Mars—were accomplished by the US and its international partners when they built the International Space Station two decades ago and landed the Viking 1 on Mars in 1976.
Still, Bridenstine argued that NASA “needs to be more engaged in the national security apparatus and the national strategy apparatus.” Its role, in Bridenstine’s view, is to offer channels for diplomatic engagement, demonstrate American technological superiority, and promote economic development.
For a tangible example, consider the forthcoming “Artemis Accords” first reported by Reuters this week. Following a recent White House executive order that called on American diplomats to explore new bilateral and multilateral agreements on lunar activity, the State Department will start working with allies to reach consensus on non-interference zones around moon outposts being planned by NASA. While not quite territorial claims, a legal ability to say “stay out” is seen as necessary to generate investment in efforts to extract resources from the moon—and a precursor to broader constructions of property rights in space.
Without mentioning these specific rules, Bridenstine suggested that adherence to new norms for lunar behavior would be a requirement for US partners. That’s a pretty big carrot to convince countries eager to join NASA on the moon to sign on to the newly proposed rules. It’s also a dividing line with China and Russia. Dmitry Rogozin, the firebrand head of Russia’s space agency, criticized the US decision to bypass the United Nations, tweeting that “the principle of invasion is the same, whether it be the Moon or Iraq.”
China hasn’t responded to the still-unannounced US diplomatic efforts. As the most likely nation other than the US to be doing stuff on the moon in the decades ahead, its opinion is the most important. Before this proposal, paranoia was already running high about whether scientific activities on the moon also imply a lunar land grab. Nearly everyone agrees that nations and companies eager to explore the moon need common rules to fall back on. The question is whether the Artemis Accords will create a framework for constructive conversation—or if it will push China to develop a competing approach.
✉️ How should the US push for global consensus about law on the moon?
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CORRESPONDENCE CORNER
Last week, I solicited your opinions on when SpaceX’s Starlink constellation would be available to consumers. It wasn’t a brilliant question, since it boils down to, do you trust SpaceX’s projections for its availability or not? Many of you did not (it’s Elon time!) and some of you did (it’s time for Elon!). I hope this week’s question will generate more nuanced responses, so click that button and send me your thoughts.
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Imagery Interlude
Perhaps the first major act of space diplomacy was the 1975 Apollo-Soyuz Test Project, when US and Soviet astronauts trained together for an in-space rendezvous and two days of scientific and public relations work. Here, US commander Thomas Stafford and Soviet commander Aleksei Leonov meet up in the docking module between their two spacecraft.
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SPACE DEBRIS
Closer to space tourism. Virgin Galactic, the publicly-traded space tourism firm, shared its first quarter results with investors this week. The $60 million loss didn’t surprise. The company has been busy with the first glide test of its rocket plane at its operational spaceport, and pushing for FAA certification to begin flying tourists into space. But it seems to have given up on its plan to perform 11 revenue-generating flights this year to focus on the maiden flight of key backer Richard Branson. One interesting tidbit: The company has signed a development deal with NASA to explore using its technology to fly passengers from point to point on Earth—the same reason Boeing invested in SPCE. Some outside engineers are skeptical that Virgin Galactic’s rocket plane can scale up as a transportation solution, but it’s clearly a key selling point for the company.
Who will buy OneWeb? The bankruptcy sale of OneWeb, a company that had planned to launch a massive constellation of satellites providing broadband internet access, is almost underway. Reports suggest there will be plenty of bidders for the company’s assets, particularly its rights to use radio spectrum. The obvious bidders include SpaceX and Amazon, each building its own constellation that could benefit from the rights. Other reported contenders include the UK government, the European satellite company Eutelsat, private equity fund Cerberus, and even two Chinese firms. Bidders are expected to be approved by the bankruptcy court in June, with an auction to be held in July.
Starship Static. After finally managing to keep a Starship prototype from popping under pressure, SpaceX founder Elon Musk now reports that the latest version of the spacecraft survived a brief static firing of its rocket engine—that is, the rocket was clamped to the ground while its engine ran. It’s a final step before any kind of test flight, and SpaceX hopes the rocket—which is now a potential part of NASA’s moon return—will begin doing short hops in the months ahead.
Litigationgado. Ligado Network, the company that received FCC approval for a plan to re-purpose satellite radio spectrum for a Internet of Things network on Earth, isn’t free and clear yet. The Senate Armed Services Committee held a hearing on Tuesday, where senior defense officials argued that Ligado’s plan would interfere with GPS and should be scotched. The problem is that overturning a unanimous, bipartisan decision from the FCC is no easy task. Lawmakers could force the issue in a bill later this year, but with Congress divided on how to proceed, the first step is likely going to be one of the opponents of the decision to petition for the FCC to reconsider the decision, or challenge it in Federal appeals court.
Tom Cruise space movie rumors? Tom Cruise space movie rumors. Now I want to re-watch Hell’s Angels and Top Gun.
Your pal,
Tim
This was issue 46 of our newsletter. Hope your week is out of this world! Please send your ideal plot for a Tom Cruise space movie, a layman’s explanation for the RF analysis at the heart of Ligado case, tips, and informed opinions to tim@qz.com.