Fewer deals, bigger bills: Here's what shoppers are expecting this holiday season

Halloween might still be almost two months away, but retailers and analysts are already laser focused on the holiday season — and early reports indicate shoppers are bracing for an expensive Yule.

A survey of 367 U.S. consumers by Gartner found that 40% of shoppers expect to see fewer discounts this year and 75% said they are expecting to have to spend more to get presents for friends and loved ones due to higher prices at retailers. In an attempt to find deals and avoid those higher costs, nearly one-third of the surveyed shoppers said they plan to get an early start on their holiday purchases, starting their gift shopping by October.

The anticipation of a pricier holiday season, says Gartner, could make it harder for retailers to lure in shoppers.

“Consumers are anticipating higher prices, supply chain disruptions and fewer discounts from retailers this holiday season,” said Gartner analyst Brad Jashinsky in a statement. “This challenging environment requires CMOs and their teams to create campaigns that effectively convey value and connect with consumers before and during the holiday shopping season."

One perk shoppers are looking for once again this year is a generous return policy. Nearly 70% of the shoppers Gartner spoke with said extended return dates would encourage them to buy items. Last year, Amazon offered free returns through Jan. 31 for any purchases made after Nov. 1. Walmart would take returns for purchases dating back as far as Oct. 1. Neither retailer has clarified their return policies for holiday 2025 yet.

Roughly a quarter of the consumers Gartner spoke to said they expected to spend less on holiday shopping this year because of the economy and confusion about the impact of tariffs.

Another factor, not mentioned in the Gartner report, could be inventory. While big retailers, including Walmart and Amazon, were able to pre-purchase inventory before tariffs went into place, shoppers who prefer to visit independent businesses and smaller retailers might have a harder time finding what they're looking for.

Nearly 80% of the toys sold in the U.S. are sourced from China, according to The Toy Association. And that organization is expecting price increases of 15% to 20% on games, dolls, cars, and other toys this year.

Holiday decorations could be scarcer as well. Chinese companies are the source of 87% of the Christmas decorations sold in the U.S., making up a $4 billion market — and many said they were seeing regular customers cancel orders earlier this year.

Gartner's not the only organization warning economic pressures could impact holiday spending. PwC, on Wednesday, said over 80% of consumers plan to cut back on seasonal spending over the next six months.