Bank of America projects Indian e-commerce will grow by 20 times in the next 10 years

Shopping spree.
Shopping spree.
Image: EPA/Piyal Adhikary
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Bank of America Merrill Lynch has raised its targets for gross merchandise value (GMV) of the Indian e-commerce industry over the coming years—just six months after it released its earlier estimate.

The firm now expects the combined GMV—total value of goods sold through an online marketplace—of Indian e-commerce companies at $220 billion (Rs1,457,060 crore) by 2025, against its May estimate of $200 billion.

The combined GMV of Indian online retailers is currently at just $11 billion.

The revision in estimates, published in the firm’s Nov. 10 report, Clash of the Titans, is due to three main factors: “Improving telecom infrastructure,” “faster adoption of online services due to increasing awareness” and “better variety of convenience.”

The chart below shows old and new estimates for annual GMV in India’s  e-commerce sector over the next 10 years:

The following two charts and table explain why Bank of America Merrill Lynch sees Indian e-commerce growing 20 times in the next 10 years:

The number of downloads for mobile applications of most e-commerce companies in India has risen over the last year. The table below shows the latest download numbers of mobile apps for leading companies in the sector on Google Playstore, in comparison to a year ago.

The data was compiled by BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research.