The U.S. travel business may be in for some good news, for a change: AAA forecasts that a record number of Americans have plans for domestic travel during the upcoming Memorial Day weekend, with 45.1 million people planning to hit the road or catch a flight.
It’s a welcome respite from reports that the rest of the world, including Canada, is avoiding travel to the U.S. amidst fears of detention or in protest of Donald Trump’s trade wars. Canadian travellers alone spent $20 billion in the U.S. in 2024.
This is the first year of the 21st century in which the U.S. has not posted a trade surplus in travel. The U.S. Travel Association says the United States is now running an annual travel trade deficit of $50 billion, compared with a $3.5-billion surplus in 2022. So an uptick in domestic travel comes at an ideal time, especially for airlines.
Gas prices are down: today the national average is $3.16 a gallon, down from $3.59 this time last year. AAA says 87% of Memorial Day trips will be by car. Domestic airline prices are up 2% after an earlier dip, but AAA projects this year’s numbers for air travel will surpass pre-pandemic levels by 12%.
The Memorial Day bump comes on the heels of a week of chaos at Newark Liberty International Airport.
One thing for all airline passengers to keep in mind: As of last week, American citizens may need the new Real ID compliant card—which could be your driver’s licence—to board domestic flights. Real ID was a post-9/11 measure passed by Congress in 2005, but full enforcement has been delayed for at least two decades.
Meanwhile, U.S. travel to Europe is expected to rise 10% this year; cheaper international airfare is one factor.