Indian prime minister Narendra Modi, who’s seeking a third term in the April-May 2024 national election, is gaining a stronger grip on the country each day.
His ruling Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) held onto power in Madhya Pradesh and toppled rival party the Indian National Congress in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, according to state election results yesterday (Dec. 3). All three states are in north and central India’s Hindi-speaking belt—the heartland that’s been Modi’s unwavering focus since he started campaigning for his first election in 2014.
Southerners are rejecting BJP’s Hindu-centric ideology, though. Yesterday’s results showed that Congress clinched a win in Telangana (which wasn’t a BJP stronghold but wasn’t ruled by Congress, either). It’s the opposition’s second win in the south after Karnataka, the state that’s home to IT capital Bengaluru. Results from the final state in the last big tranche of state elections before the federal polls, Mizoram, are expected today (Dec. 4). But there, the fight is among regional parties, not giants BJP and Congress.
Both have been offering near-identical promises and incentives to voters—free food, free power, free gas, free education, money for women, free transport for women, and more—but what sets the BJP apart is clarity of ideology and leadership. It’s amplified by the support that national media displays for Modi and the contempt it shows for Congress leader Rahul Gandhi.
It’s important to note that state elections don’t necessarily have a bearing on general ones. Last time, BJP won even the states that Congress had nabbed in the state elections when the national vote rolled around. But state votes can be a barometer of strength and morale, when it comes to both internal housekeeping and external jostling. Especially when Modi has replaced local leaders as the face of BJP’s campaigns countrywide.
Can Congress take on BJP?
Congress has tried to paint the Telangana win as a sign of its comeback. “It is a fact that the Bharat Jodo Yatra [Unite India Rally] led by Rahul Gandhi energized the cadres in Telangana,” Karnataka chief minister Siddaramaiah said.
While Congress heralded the wins in the south, some members of the INDIA bloc—an acronym for the coalition Congress formed with dozens of smaller parties that unfurls to Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance—didn’t cheer, exposing fault lines in the budding accord. The allies lambasted Congress for not using its expertise and resources to fight the behemoth that is BJP in the northern states.
Meanwhile, Modi’s campaign to dismantle the opposition continues as he leaves no opportunity to brashly call out Congress’ corruption and dynasty politics. This, while his own party is doubling down on the Hindutva agenda.
The next performance will unfold come January, when the prime minister inaugurates a massive Hindu temple in Ayodhya, in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh. The temple is being constructed on the site of a demolished mosque, Babri Masjid—capping a years-long fight (and win) for the BJP that helped the party rise to prominence.
Charted: BJP’s biggest upset, Chhattisgarh
Quotable: Modi’s charisma
“When the Congress goes up against the formidable organizational and electoral machinery of the BJP, burnished by Prime Minister Modi’s charisma, it collapses. This is the BJP’s big advantage in 2024.”
—Arati Jerath, a New Delhi-based political analyst, about the opposition’s performance in the north
The run-up to India’s 2024 election, by the digits
52%: Share of voters who want Modi to stay in power, according to a nationwide poll in August
1.8 million: Women who voted in Madhya Pradesh in the recent state elections, 2% more than previously. Thanks to targeted welfare benefits, Modi’s BJP has made strides with this group
28: Parties in the INDIA alliance formed by the opposition Congress party in July
14: TV news anchors whom leaders of the INDIA bloc have decided to boycott, including Republic Network’s Arnab Goswami, Aaj Tak’s Sudhir Chaudhary, News18 Hindi’s Amish Devgan, TimesNow’s Navika Kumar, and IndiaToday Group’s Gaurav Sawant, to avoid “journalists who are in the WhatsApp group of the BJP media cell”
4,000 kilometers: Length of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra (Unite India Rally), which saw him cover 12 states and two union territories in five months
6,000: Invitations sent to priests, donors, and politicians for the consecration of Ayodhya’s Ram Temple, for which Modi himself laid the foundation stone three years ago. The ceremony is due to take place on Jan. 22, 2024