Morningstar valued SpaceX at $780 billion as it launched research coverage of the company, placing it roughly 48% below the private market valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion that recent funding rounds have established.
The research firm assigned SpaceX a narrow economic moat rating, crediting its core launch and satellite communications businesses with durable cost advantages while flagging the newly acquired AI division as a potential source of value destruction. "We think the company has been significantly overvalued and investors will have opportunities to buy the stock at more attractive levels after the IPO," said Morningstar equity analyst Nicolas Owens, according to Reuters.
Morningstar's discounted cash flow model placed the enterprise value of SpaceX's space launch and Starlink connectivity businesses at roughly $611 billion. A probability-weighted assessment of three scenarios for the AI segment added $170 billion to arrive at the overall $780 billion figure. The firm gave its most optimistic "Moonshot" scenario a 7% probability, its base-case scenario a 50% probability, and its downside "No Go" scenario a 43% probability.
The AI business, which includes the Grok large language model, the Colossus data center, and the social network X $TWTR, poses the greatest uncertainty. Owens said the AI segment's future rests partly on unproven orbital data center technology, and that Grok has not established itself among the leading AI models. "We don't see Grok as one of the leading AI labs today," he said, according to Reuters.
Despite the cautious long-term view, near-term price performance could still be positive, the firm noted, citing limited shares available at launch and the backing of a well-resourced group of major banks, along with a Nasdaq $NDAQ rule that could allow SpaceX to qualify for inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index just 15 trading days after its debut. Selling pressure is more likely to emerge in the months after the IPO, when successive tranches held by private investors and employees become available for sale.
SpaceX filed its S-1 registration statement with the SEC last month, disclosing full-year 2025 revenue of $18.67 billion, with Starlink accounting for $11.39 billion of that total. The company is targeting a valuation of at least $1.8 trillion in the offering, according to prior reporting. SpaceX is aiming to raise between $50 billion and $80 billion in gross proceeds, with trading expected to begin on the Nasdaq on June 12 under the ticker SPCX, according to Reuters. The underwriting syndicate includes Goldman Sachs $GS, Morgan Stanley $MS, Bank of America $BAC Securities, Citigroup $C, and JPMorgan $JPM, among others.