The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 2.2% decline in total mortgage application volume for the week ending July 3, 2026, with results adjusted for the Independence Day holiday.
Borrowers seeking conforming loans saw their costs tick up slightly, with the 30-year fixed rate climbing one basis point to land at 6.58%, according to the MBA. Rates have remained in a tight range for more than a month, according to CNBC.
On a year-over-year basis, refinance volume held 8% above last year's comparable week, even as it slid 4% from the prior week. Purchase applications also retreated, slipping 1% from the week before while still running 5% ahead of where they stood twelve months ago, the MBA said.
"Refinance application volume was down 4 percent, as homeowners saw little enticement to act with rates still elevated," Mike Fratantoni, the MBA's senior vice president and chief economist, said in a statement.
Not all loan categories declined. Among purchase loan types, VA applications stood out, posting a 5% weekly gain that lifted overall government purchase volume even as conventional purchase activity moved in the opposite direction, the MBA said. The VA share of total applications increased to 13.0% from 12.9% the prior week.
The refinance share of total mortgage activity dipped to 40.6% from 41.4% the previous week. Adjustable-rate mortgages accounted for 7.8% of total applications, the MBA said.
Rates for other loan types moved modestly. The average rate on jumbo 30-year fixed mortgages — loans above $832,750 — fell to 6.50% from 6.52%. The 15-year fixed rate edged down to 5.99% from 6.00%. The five-year ARM averaged 5.84%, up from 5.79% the prior week, the MBA said.
Mortgage demand surged 10.8% for the week ending June 5, when both refinance and purchase activity climbed despite a slight increase in rates. At that time, Mike Fratantoni attributed rate volatility to news from the Middle East and noted that borrowers had found pockets of lower rates during the week. That rebound followed an 8.5% drop for the week ending May 28, when the 30-year fixed rate hit its highest level since August 2025.
Early this week, data from Mortgage News Daily pointed to a modest uptick in rates. The move came as geopolitical tension resurfaced around Iran, with renewed talk that the U.S. might curtail Iranian oil shipments — a scenario that analysts say could feed into inflation and ultimately push borrowing costs higher.