Tesla's driverless robotaxi pilot arrives this weekend — with training wheels

After years of delays and bold promises, Tesla is preparing to launch its first robotaxi service on June 22 in Austin, Texas — though the rollout will be far more limited and cautious than CEO Elon Musk once envisioned.

The pilot launch is less of a truly autonomous debut and more of a tightly controlled test with serious investor implications. The rollout will reportedly involve just 10 to 20 Model Y SUVs operating within a geofenced area of Austin, with each vehicle carrying a human “safety monitor” in the front passenger seat. Tesla has also set up a teleoperations team to supervise the fleet remotely and intervene, if needed. The service will be invite-only at launch, with Tesla selecting influencers, investors, and customers to participate.

Rides will be available from 6 a.m. to midnight, but the robotaxis won’t go everywhere: Airport trips are off-limits, and routes will avoid complex intersections. Service may also be paused during bad weather. The goal, Tesla says, is to gradually scale the program while closely monitoring safety — a major concern for regulators and lawmakers.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is still investigating Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, which has been linked to dozens of crashes and at least 13 fatalities. Critics have argued that Tesla’s marketing around FSD has overstated the system’s capabilities, which still require frequent human intervention and don’t meet the industry standard definition of autonomous driving.

In Texas, state lawmakers have formally requested that Tesla postpone the launch until rules governing autonomous vehicle operations take effect on September 1. So far, the company hasn’t indicated that it will delay its rollout.

Musk, who previously said Tesla would have 1 million robotaxis on the road by 2020, has acknowledged that this June launch won’t be fully autonomous. He described the rollout as an “early access” phase and said the company is being “super-paranoid” about safety — warning that the June 22 date could be pushed back as a result. He also teased a separate demonstration for later this month, where a Tesla would drive itself from the factory to a customer’s home by June 28. (Whether that trip involves a chaperone remains unclear.)

Wall Street, for its part, is watching closely — and betting big. 

Tesla stock is up more almost 45% since April, thanks in part to robotaxi enthusiasm and Musk’s renewed focus on AI. Wedbush analysts have predicted that Tesla could expand robotaxi service to 25 U.S. cities within a year. Longtime Tesla bull Dan Ives, Wedbush’s managing director, said in a Friday note that Tesla’s “$1 trillion autonomous era” will begin with Sunday’s launch.

“Taking a step back we view this autonomous chapter as one of the most important for Musk and Tesla in its history as a company...as we believe the AI future at Tesla is worth $1 trillion to the valuation alone over the next few years,” Ives wrote. “There are countless skeptics of the Tesla robotaxi vision with many bears thinking this day would never come and now it’s about Musk and Tesla creating this foundation of autonomous growth for years to come and it all starts Sunday on Sixth Street in Austin.”

Still, Tesla’s stock is down almost 24% in the past six months and 16% year to date, making other analysts more skeptical. Some at Barclays and Baird have warned that Tesla’s software still trails competitors such as Alphabet’s Waymo and Amazon’s Zoox (which already offer fully driverless rides in multiple cities with more mature software stacks) and say Tesla’s robotaxi hype could set the company up for another reality check if early tests stumble.

Tesla’s pitch is that its approach will ultimately scale faster than anyone else’s. Millions of Teslas already on the road are logging miles and feeding data to the company’s AI. Tesla uses vision-only software, while rivals also rely on lidar and radar sensors and stick to pre-mapped routes, expanding methodically, city by city. But scale doesn’t guarantee autonomy.

Meanwhile, the competition is cruising ahead.

Waymo’s fully driverless robotaxis already operate in parts of Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, with no human monitors and millions of real-world miles under their belt. Zoox is testing purpose-built vehicles with no steering wheel at all. Cruise, GM’s self-driving unit, is rebooting after a string of safety scandals but plans to return to the streets later this year.

Compared with these players, Tesla’s Model Y robotaxis — with a front-seat babysitter — could look more like a beta test than a breakthrough.

Still, if Tesla can execute a smooth (if modest) launch, it could be the first real proof point in Musk’s ambition to pivot the company from a carmaker to an AI platform — a shift he’s described as “transformational” to Tesla’s valuation. The company is betting its future not on selling vehicles to drivers, but on selling robotaxi rides to passengers — and data to itself. If it works, Tesla could lead the pack. If it doesn’t, it’ll be yet another missed milestone in a saga that’s been stuck in neutral for years.

And come June 22, we’ll find out which side of the road Tesla’s robotaxis will land on.