Thanksgiving dinner is cheaper this year. Here's why

According to the latest report by the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), an agricultural industry interest group, the low cost of certain Thanksgiving items could bring the average meal to $5.81 per person. That’s a 5% drop from $6.12 per person last year.

Falling turkey prices

The drop is largely due to falling turkey prices — the centerpiece for most traditional Thanksgiving tables. Turkey is typically the most expensive part of the meal, accounting for about 43% of the total cost.

The average price for a 16-pound turkey is currently $25.67, which is $1.60 per pound, down 6% from last year. According to USDA Agricultural Marketing Service data, the average per-pound price for whole frozen turkeys has also declined during the second week of November.

The low turkey prices are driven by falling demand for turkey due to the avian flu.

“The American turkey flock is the smallest it’s been since 1985 because of avian influenza, but overall demand has also fallen, resulting in lower prices at the grocery store for families planning a holiday meal,” according to AFBF economist Bernt Nelson.

This year, farmers raised 205 million turkeys, down 6% from last year— the lowest since 1985, according to a report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). USDA estimates per-capita demand for turkey is 13.9 pounds per person, down a pound from 2023.

Cost of other items on the table

According to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s annual survey, other items also got cheaper this year, including sweet potatoes, carrots, and celery.

Three pounds of sweet potatoes cost $2.93 and are down 26.2% from last year. The price drop reflects the volatility in crops this year. Other items such as frozen peas, pumpkin pie mix, and whole milk also saw a price dip. Favorable weather has led to a sharp drop of more than 14% in the price for a gallon of whole milk, the group said. However, the AFBF analysis notes that these prices vary significantly across the U.S.

On the other hand, tables serving more dinner rolls, fresh cranberries, whipping cream, and cubed stuffing look pricier this year.

Items like cubed stuffing and dinner rolls saw an 8% increase due to rising labor costs for partners across the food supply chain. Cranberries prices shot up by almost 12% year over year, but still remain more affordable when compared to historical averages, according to the AFBF.

The cost for the classic Thanksgiving meal looks most affordable in the South, costing $56.81 for ten or $5.68 per person, and most expensive in the West costing $67.81 or $6.78 per person.

When including the additional items such as ham, Russet potatoes, and frozen green beans, the updated Thanksgiving meal cost rose to $77.34, or $7.73 per person, nearly doubling the cost savings of the classic basket, reflecting an 8.7% decrease in price from 2023. With the updated meal, the South still looked most affordable at a total of $81.07, followed by the Northeast at $81.37, the Midwest at $83.04, and the least affordable in the West at $94.09.

But these costs remain about 19% higher than they were in 2019, before pandemic lockdowns.

“We are seeing modest improvements in the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner for a second year, but America’s families, including farm families, are still being hurt by high inflation,” AFBF President Zippy Duvall said in a statement.