The U.S. supply of toilet paper may come unspooled. President Donald Trump’s increased tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber could have the unintended effect of disrupting production of the bathroom essential, Bloomberg News reports.
The Trump administration’s plans to jack duties on Canadian softwood lumber to 27% — and possibly to over 50% later — may hit the availability of northern bleached softwood kraft pulp, or NBSK, a key ingredient in toilet paper and paper towels, the news agency said, citing industry participants and observers.
The import taxes on the lumber will eventually put some sawmills out of business, reducing the supply of wood chips to make pulp. That will lead to temporary closures and lower production of the ingredient, which given the finely-balanced nature of the market may result in pandemic-like shortages of the finished products and possibly higher prices.
Trump is scheduled to announce “reciprocal” tariffs on foreign products on April 2, when delayed 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods are also due to come into effect. He’s already announced 25% tariffs on all imported cars, trucks and auto parts, including those made by U.S. companies in Canada.
Import taxes on Canadian softwood lumber, now 14%, are set to rise to almost 27% this year. The 25% tariffs on most Canadian products would bump the duties to about 52% — and a “national security” probe on lumber imports could raise the charges even further.
Replacing the approximately 2 million tons of pulp now imported from Canada won’t be easy. Not only does it constitute most of the American supply, many U.S. paper plants rely on single Canadian mills because their own production processes are attuned to that specific pulp.
“They don’t buy our products for our pretty eyes,” Frederic Verreault, VP of corporate affairs at Les Chantiers de Chibougamau, a Quebec wood processor, told Bloomberg. “They buy our products because they are the best and the most integrated into their factories.”