In This Story
In less than 100 days, President Donald Trump has made major economic waves.
His tariffs — both those he’s actually implemented the threat of more — have roiled financial markets and thrown the U.S. into a new trade war. Several key economic partners have retaliated with their own, making further escalation a possibility.
Tariffs — taxes paid by businesses importing foreign goods from designated countries — are poised to slam major American businesses, from automakers and retailers to technology companies. Several major companies have said they will likely need to raise their prices, while others are pulling out all the stops to try to keep costs manageable.
Here’s where things currently stand, and what’s on the horizon for the $24 trillion global merchandise trade.
Mexico and Canada
The U.S. on March 4 imposed 25% duties on imports from Mexico and Canada, with a carveout of 10% tariffs on Canadian energy oil and all potash. Then, just two days later, the U.S. said that all products covered under the USMCA trade agreement would not be tariffed.
That deal, which covers about half of all imports from Mexico and 37% of imports from Canada, lasts for one month and is meant to coincide with the president’s next slew of tariff announcements.
The agreement prevented Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum from following through on plans for retaliatory tariffs, which could kick in following the next round of tariffs. It’s expected that they would likely focus on U.S. products such as beer and vegetables.
Canada announced tariffs of 25% on some $21 billion worth of U.S. goods earlier this month amid a slew of retaliatory measures designed to hit back at the U.S. The nation is set to impose tariffs on an additional $87 billion of U.S.-made products if Trump proceeds with his April 2 tariffs.
Read More: Trump says tariffs will help car companies. Here’s why he’s wrong
According to Trump’s orders announcing his tariffs, the duties are being used to force Canada and Mexico to do more to prevent the flow of undocumented immigrants and illegal drugs through the U.S.’s southern and northern borders. Almost 87,000 Americans died from drug overdoses in the 12-month period that ended in September 2024.
The vast majority of fentanyl seized by Customs and Border Patrol was intercepted at the U.S.’ southwest border with Mexico. According to the Committee for Foreign Relations, just 43 pounds of fentanyl was seized at the Canadian border, a fraction of the almost 21,900 pounds seized last year.
Europe
The Trump administration’s recent trade spats with Europe threaten some $9.5 trillion worth of business each year, according to the American Chamber of Commerce to the EU.
In response to the U.S.’ new 25% duties on steel and aluminum, the European Union hit back with two phases of proposed tariffs on some $28 billion worth of American exports, including whiskey and soybeans. Although initially designed to be separate, both phases are now set to take effect on April 13. Trump had responded to that proposal by threatening to spike U.S. tariffs on European spirits to 200% unless the tariffs on whiskey were nixed.
The E.U.’s trade commissioner, Maros Sefcovic, met with top U.S. trade officials on Tuesday, including Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
“The hard work goes on. The EU’s priority is a fair, balanced deal instead of unjustified tariffs,” Sefcovic wrote on X. “We share the goal of industrial strength on both sides.”
Two days later, Trump threatened to hike tariffs on Canada and the E.U. if they work together to do “economic harm” to the U.S.
“[L]arge scale Tariffs, far larger than currently planned, will be placed on them both in order to protect the best friend that each of those two countries has ever had!” Trump warned.
The United Kingdom exported about $151 billion worth of aluminum and steel to the U.S. last year, according to the Global Trade Alert. Prime Minister Keith Starmer has said he will “keep all options on the table” when it comes to responding to the tariffs.
President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs set to be announced next month could slash the British economy by up to 1%, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility, an independent fiscal watchdog. A 20% increase in U.S. tariffs on the rest of the world would “almost entirely eliminate the headroom against the fiscal mandate, as additional tariff revenue is more than offset by lower receipts from income, corporation, and consumption taxes,” the group said.
China
China was initially hit with 10% tariffs in February, which grew to 20% the following month. On both occasions, the U.S. cited a failure on China’s part to reduce the flow of fentanyl into the U.S.
Beijing retaliated on March 4 with its own tariffs designed to slam U.S. farmers. Major food exports to China, including chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton were hit with a 15% rate. A 10% duty was added to imports of “sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products.”
A recent Agriculture Department study projected China to be the third-largest agricultural market this year, with exports falling by $1.3 billion from a prior projection due to increased competition for soybeans, corn, sorghum, and cotton. Overall trade in fiscal year 2025 is set to reach $22 billion.
China’s Ministry of Commerce placed 15 U.S. companies on its export control list, including several drone companies. It also added 10 companies to its “unreliable entity” list, including Wisconsin-based S3 AeroDefense and Calvin Klein owner PVH Corp. (PVH+1.95%) Biotechnology firm Illumina (ILMN+0.37%) was added to the list and barred from exporting gene sequencers to China, which accounts for 7% of sales.
China also issued anti-dumping duties on U.S. companies that export single-mode optical fiber to the market. Tariffs on those firms range from between 33.3% to 78.2%.
Read More: The trade war is just part of a bigger fight. An expert on how to wage economic warfare
Trump on Monday implemented what he called a secondary tariff, a novel approach that seeks to tariff countries for doing trade with a third party. Duties of 25% will be imposed on all goods imported into the U.S. from a nation that either indirectly or directly imports oil from Venezuela, according to an executive order.
The move comes as Trump has sought to crack down on the Venezuela-based Tren de Aragua gang with measures that include deportations. A federal judge on Monday ruled that migrants must be allowed to challenge the decision to remove them.
The potential tariffs could have a big effect on China, which was the largest export market for Venezuelan oil and gas last year, according to Reuters. China took 351,000 barrels per day, down 18% year-over-year.
“That’s on top of existing tariffs,” the president said Monday in response to questions from a reporter.
The Department of Commerce also added more than 50 Chinese organizations to an entity list, barring American firms from supplying to those firms without government permits. That includes 11 entities working on advanced artificial intelligence and supercomputers, as well as Huawei, a major smartphone maker.
Everyone else
During his presidential campaign, Trump proposed universal tariffs of between 10% and 20% on imports from more than 190 countries, which could have major implications for the U.S. economy. Although that plan has seemingly taken the backseat, Treasury Secretary Bessent has discussed universal tariffs that would start at 2.5%.
Just about a week away is the potential launch of the president’s so-called “reciprocal” tariffs, duties that are meant to equalize the U.S.’ tariffs with those imposed by other nations. Much is still unclear about the size and scope of those tariffs. Top federal economic officials have said some tariffs may go into effect immediately, while others won’t become active for weeks or months.
Goldman Sachs (GS+1.93%) analysts said this week that Trump administration officials have said initial duties are meant as a basis for talks — which incentivizes them to set high rates. A recent survey shows market participants expect an initial 9% reciprocal tariff rate, but it may be double that level, Goldman’s Alec Phillips said in a note.
“I’ll probably be more lenient than reciprocal, because if I was reciprocal, that would be very tough for people,” Trump said in a Tuesday night interview on Newsmax. A day earlier he said that he “may give a lot of countries breaks.”
The Trump administration is focusing on issuing tariffs on the countries with the highest goods trade imbalances with the U.S., what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called the “dirty 15.” Although an official list hasn’t been made public, it would likely include Vietnam and Taiwan, among others.
Earlier this month, the U.S. levied a 25% tariff on imports of aluminum and steel, a move welcomed by the domestic steel industry, which has historically welcomed tariffs. The Trump administration is expediting its investigation into potential copper tariffs, which Bloomberg News reports appears to be more of a formality than an actual fact-finding operation.
Trump has also discussed tariffs “in the neighborhood of 25%” on imported semiconductors, and pharmaceutical imports, which were originally expected to be announced in early April. Malaysia and Singapore are expected to be hard-hit by the tariffs on semiconductors, while China and India may be slammed by the tariffs on pharmaceuticals.
The president on Wednesday announced that 25% duties on foreign vehicles and auto parts would go into effect on April 3, which will impact just about every automaker, from Tesla and General Motors to Volkswagen (VWAGY+2.61%) and Ferrari.
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the majority of passenger cars the U.S. imported last year came from Mexico (48,704), followed by Japan (39,933), South Korea (37,385), Canada (27,675), and Germany (25,352).
JPMorgan (JPM-0.63%) analysts expect the auto industry to take a $82 billion annual hit, up from an initial estimate of $41 billion, assuming that automakers absorb the cost of the tariffs. If they decide to pass the costs on to consumers, light vehicle prices could rise by up to 11.4%.