The mean of analysts' price targets for Sony (SONY) points to a 34.7% upside in the stock. While this highly sought-after metric has not proven reasonably effec
Shares of Sony $SONY (SONY) have gained 4.1% over the past four weeks to close the last trading session at $21.46, but there could still be a solid upside left in the stock if short-term price targets of Wall Street analysts are any indication. Going by the price targets, the mean estimate of $28.9 indicates a potential upside of 34.7%.
The mean estimate comprises four short-term price targets with a standard deviation of $5.05. While the lowest estimate of $22.00 indicates a 2.5% increase from the current price level, the most optimistic analyst expects the stock to surge 58.4% to reach $34.00. It's very important to note the standard deviation here, as it helps understand the variability of the estimates. The smaller the standard deviation, the greater the agreement among analysts.
While the consensus price target is a much-coveted metric for investors, solely banking on this metric to make an investment decision may not be wise at all. That's because the ability and unbiasedness of analysts in setting price targets have long been questionable.
However, an impressive consensus price target is not the only factor that indicates a potential upside in SONY. This view is strengthened by the agreement among analysts that the company will report better earnings than what they estimated earlier. Though a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions doesn't give any idea as to how much the stock could surge, it has proven effective in predicting an upside.
According to researchers at several universities across the globe, a price target is one of many pieces of information about a stock that misleads investors far more often than it guides. In fact, empirical research shows that price targets set by several analysts, irrespective of the extent of agreement, rarely indicate where the price of a stock could actually be heading.
While Wall Street analysts have deep knowledge of a company's fundamentals and the sensitivity of its business to economic and industry issues, many of them tend to set overly optimistic price targets. Are you wondering why?
They usually do that to drum up interest in shares of companies that their firms either have existing business relationships with or are looking to be associated with. In other words, business incentives of firms covering a stock often result in inflated price targets set by analysts.
However, a tight clustering of price targets, which is represented by a low standard deviation, indicates that analysts have a high degree of agreement about the direction and magnitude of a stock's price movement. While that doesn't necessarily mean the stock will hit the average price target, it could be a good starting point for further research aimed at identifying the potential fundamental driving forces.
That said, while investors should not entirely ignore price targets, making an investment decision solely based on them could lead to disappointing ROI. So, price targets should always be treated with a high degree of skepticism.
Analysts' growing optimism over the company's earnings prospects, as indicated by strong agreement among them in revising EPS estimates higher, could be a legitimate reason to expect an upside in the stock. That's because empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased 2.1%, as one estimate has moved higher compared to no negative revision.
Moreover, SONY currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), which means it is in the top 20% of more than 4,000 stocks that we rank based on four factors related to earnings estimates. Given an impressive externally-audited track record, this is a more conclusive indication of the stock's potential upside in the near term. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .
Therefore, while the consensus price target may not be a reliable indicator of how much SONY could gain, the direction of price movement it implies does appear to be a good guide.
From thousands of stocks, 5 Zacks experts each have chosen their favorite to skyrocket +100% or more in months to come. From those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian hand-picks one to have the most explosive upside of all.
This company targets millennial and Gen Z audiences, generating nearly $1 billion in revenue last quarter alone. A recent pullback makes now an ideal time to jump aboard. Of course, all our elite picks aren’t winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks’ Stocks Set to Double like Nano-X $TWTR Imaging which shot up +129.6% in little more than 9 months.
Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners UpWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
Join 500,000+ readers who start their day with Quartz.
By subscribing, you agree to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.
