It’s not the first time traders have been wrong-footed by the the US presidential election: markets were also positioned for a clear outcome in 2016 when Trump surprised investors by taking key US states to beat Hillary Clinton. Trump even suggested early this morning that he thinks the election should go to the Supreme Court. Whatever happens, polls signaling a so-called Blue Wave seem to have been wide of the mark.

The prospect of congressional support for another package of aid for the US economy is unclear. It appears Democrats will keep control of the House, and it’s too soon to tell which party will control the Senate, raising the prospects for gridlock in Washington and making it more difficult for ambitious policies, from tax increases to a blockbuster stimulus package, to get sufficient backing. That’s important for the economy and millions of people in the US, as support from the $2 trillion Cares Act fades.

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