Starr County, located in South Texas and sharing a border with Mexico, is poised to account for the biggest swing of any county this century. Democrats led by Joe Biden lost a larger percentage of voters there than in any other county. The county has a population of about 64,000 people, according to Census Bureau estimates in 2019, 96% of whom identified as Hispanic or Latino. Democrats’ share of the vote in Starr County, where about 10% of the people have at least a bachelor’s degree, dropped by 28 percentage points between 2016 and 2020.

At the other end of the spectrum, Democrats saw a 17 percentage point increase in their share of the vote in Jackson County, Missouri. Encompassing much of the city of Kansas City and its suburbs, it’s about 62% non-Hispanic white, according to Census data, and some 31% of adults have a bachelor’s degree. The median household income is $52,000.

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