As Stebbins found out when the Minnesota delegation was called on to report its votes, under the new Rule 40, Paul’s votes didn’t count.

Fast-forward to 2016

The GOP’s reaction to the Paul mutiny helped boost the presumptive frontrunner’s advantages vis-a-vis upstart candidates. In 2016, that frontrunner happened to be Trump. This isn’t to say the rules changes directly led to Trump’s presumed victory, says Josh Putnam, an expert on campaigns and elections at the University of Georgia and blogger at FrontloadingHQ. ”No matter how they structure the rules, they’re designed to produce a frontrunner, and that frontrunner usually wins,” says Putnam.

However, the big changes to the 2016 delegate math they still changed the race’s strategic dynamics in a way that wound up favoring Trump. The binding of previously unbound caucus-state delegates made it impossible for grassroots activists to rally their support behind a challenger to Trump. The newly bound delegates included the hundred or so RNC representatives from each state—party insiders that, had they not been bound to vote for Trump, might have coalesced around a consensus candidate, giving that candidate motivation to stay in the race. Without Rule 40, more candidates might well have had the impetus to stay in the race longer. That could have given national convention delegates—the majority of whom don’t like Trump—a better chance of supporting a challenger to the party’s new orange-haired overlord in Cleveland.

By shutting up a vexingly vocal minority, GOP leaders may have summoned forth Trump’s “silent majority.” Though Minnesota’s James Heaney is avowedly anti-Trump, he still relishes what he sees as “poetic justice” in what resulted from the Republican elite’s rules overreach in Tampa.

“That line from Star Wars comes to mind,” he says. “‘The more you tighten your grip, Mr. Ginsberg, the more star systems will slip through your fingers.’”

Antipathy toward the establishment deepens

Image for article titled How the Republican elite tried to fix the presidency and instead got Donald Trump
Image: Flickr user David Drexler. Licensed under (CC BY 2.0); image has been cropped.

Although Romney’s team and the RNC succeeded in stamping out the chance for popular upstart campaigns with a superior grassroots organization to gain traction, they failed to address the rank and file’s frustrations with Washington Republicans. In Minnesota, at least part of the anti-establishment resentment that Trump whipped into a populist froth this year built up in reaction to that failure, says Harvey.

“Trump just wandered onto the battlefield while all the guns were still lying around,” he says.

In particular, blocking Paul’s votes from being counted in Tampa rankled Minnesotans, says Jim Carson. This sort of paranoid power-grabbing underscores how estranged party leadership is from its rank and file.

“Down here in flyover country we’ve kind of had it with DC establishment,” says Carson, the chair of the third congressional district Republican Party. “They’ve given us weak candidates going back to… I didn’t even like Reagan in 1980.”

Changing the conversation

Image for article titled How the Republican elite tried to fix the presidency and instead got Donald Trump
Image: AP Photo/John Minchillo

This year, the Tampa rules changes forced Minnesota’s GOP to bind its national delegates to the popular vote results and, therefore, to scrap its traditional system of electing unbound delegates up through the caucus system. Under this new process, the Minnesota delegation to Cleveland’s 2016 Republican national convention in July will give Trump eight of its votes. Without the Tampa rules, he would have won far fewer. Trump pocketed those eight delegates despite not once campaigning in the state. (Ivanka Trump did, however, address Minnesotans in a 52-second YouTube clip.)

Primary elections are the highly visible endpoint of a complex relationship: A long, multi-layered dialogue between candidates and party members. Tilting the playing field toward certain types of candidates—as Romney’s crew did in Tampa—shifts how the party engages with its members too.

When the popular vote decides a dozen state contests in a single day, the game becomes mobilizing the most voters—mostly by spending billions on snappy soundbite-filled ads during sporting events, or the evening news. Trump has brilliantly taken this one-way interaction with the masses to a whole new level: incendiary tweets gone viral, ecstatic packed-stadium yell-along sessions (“Who’s gonna build that wall?” “MEXICO!”), gladiatorial catfights masquerading as debates, and a candidacy thesis consisting of 30-second YouTube clips. People might mutter at their screens, but generally, those conversations are decidedly one-sided.

Jackson Harvey with Paul in 2012; as chair of his district in 2014.
Jackson Harvey with Paul in 2012; as chair of his district in 2014.
Image: Jackson Harvey

In Minnesota and the handful of states that traditionally haven’t used the popular vote to pick their preferred presidential candidate, but instead leaned on a caucus system to select national delegates, this conversation tended to be meatier. To win delegates in each of these states, candidates had to persuade seasoned Republican Party faithful to back them. And in countless phone calls, emails, and public speeches, those activists had to then bring around their Republican neighbors, earning their votes in the local caucuses and conventions too.

If that sounds boring and exhausting, it’s because—most of the time, at least—it is. But it also encourages substantive debate. And when grassroots movements are passionate and well-disciplined enough, it lets them diffuse their views up through the party hierarchy, sometimes even to the uppermost echelon, the national convention. While that sometimes embarrasses the GOP mainstream, these movements can offer a vibrancy that energizes the party for years and decades to come.

Over the last 40 years, this system has been receding into the footnotes of Republican party history, replaced with the one-way, candidate-led model. The Tampa rules changes hastened that withering. The pull-a-lever-and-go-home style of engagement now seems to be the way of the future: Minnesota’s governor just signed a bill making primaries a permanent feature of the state’s presidential nomination process.

Unpopular democracy

Caucus night in 2012 at Coon Rapids Elementary School.
Caucus night in 2012 at Coon Rapids Elementary School.
Image: Reuters/Eric Miller

There are some excellent reasons to scrap caucuses in favor of primaries. Jeff Williams, a longtime party activist and campaign strategist based in Saint Paul, says he supports the move ”because it allows more average people access to the process.” The traditional practice of holding caucuses for a few hours at night makes it hard for, say, nightshift workers or parents to participate. There’s no provision for absentee voting; if you’re out of town, too bad.

Other critics of the caucus system say concentrating authority in the hands of activists can skew things—encouraging more extreme candidates—like Barry Goldwater, or Paul. The loftiest argument, however, is that primaries that bind delegates to the popular vote more accurately reflect the will of the people. During the debate in Tampa about binding delegates, former California congresswoman Mary Bono put it this way: “If you want to tell voters that their vote doesn’t count, this is a way to do that.”

Caucus night in Saint Paul on March 1, 2016 was crowded this year.
Caucus night in Saint Paul on March 1, 2016 was crowded this year.
Image: James Heaney

All of these arguments make a lot of sense. Strangely, though, many Minnesota Republican activists want to keep their caucus system the way it is. Why? Trump, for one. Under Minnesota’s traditional caucus system, Cruz would have prevailed, says Jim Carson.

There’s a more existential source of unease too: The possibility that a shift from quality to quantity of candidate engagement will leave the Republican Party estranged from its would-be supporters.

Growing the grassroots

Republican presidential candidate Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, signs an autograph on a dollar bill as he visits a caucus site Tuesday, Feb. 7, 2012, in Coon Rapids, Minn. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast
Ron Paul autographs a dollar bill on caucus night 2012 in Coon Rapids, MN.
Image: AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast

Most Minnesota Republican activists will tell you that their traditional caucus process let minority perspectives influence and challenge the majority. Offering a more meaningful way of participating in the party’s operation than just losing a vote keeps the party growing, they’ll often add.

James Heaney and Jackson Harvey are both examples. Four years after the Ron Paul insurgency, both hold positions in the party leadership. Harvey will represent Minnesota as a national delegate in Cleveland.

And though neither was a Paul fan, both Carson and Randy Gilbert, chair of the third district’s Republican Party, praise the insurgency’s lingering benefits.

“Many of the Ron Paul supporters have stuck around,” Gilbert says. “They have great ideas. They tend to be younger too—and that’s good for the Republican Party, which has this white-haired, ready-to-go-to-Florida type of thing [going on].”

In Saint Paul, former Paulites have influenced the party’s priorities, says Carson. “We have become much less a socially conservative party and more libertarian.”

In his district, where youngish former Paulites abound, Harvey says the issues whipping up the most grassroots energy are abuse of police force, state surveillance, criminal justice reform, and asset forfeiture. Not exactly big talking points among national GOP leaders.

Will the binding of Minnesota’s national delegates through the new primary system give future grassroots movements less impetus to participate?

Maybe. National delegates will still be able directly to influence the Party’s national platform planks by becoming national delegates, says University of Georgia’s Josh Putnam. But most Paul movement veterans are skeptical. Without Paul’s candidacy to champion, few if any of them would have become involved in the party in the first place. And since the Paul insurgency taught them the ins and outs of caucusing, it’s been easier to stay engaged. (In fact, many say they now find the rules maneuvering fun.)

The problem is, most newcomers don’t enter the party through sweeping grassroots insurgencies; they join it accidentally. People usually find themselves at their first caucus with the sole goal of voting for a presidential candidate. Before they can, though, they must listen to their fellow caucusgoers debate candidates’ merits and hot election issues. Some caucus neophytes are drawn into the community when they jump into the discussion; for others, a plucky caucusgoer dragooning them into phonebanking might do the trick. In Minnesota, at least, this is how the party keeps growing.

Janet Beihoffer, Minnesota’s RNC national committeewoman, and Maniela Vang recruit supporters in Saint Paul during Hmong New Year.
Janet Beihoffer, Minnesota’s RNC national committeewoman, and Maniela Vang recruit supporters in Saint Paul during Hmong New Year.
Image: Dallas Pierson

Under the new law, however, Minnesota’s primary and the precinct caucuses will be held a week or so apart. So those who would have been susceptible to debating and dragooning will instead cast their presidential primary ballot and leave, without giving the party a chance to engage them.

“This will have the effect of keeping only the hard core supporters in the process and will create confusion regarding the proper way of participating in the body politic,” says Jeff Williams.

If participating becomes synonymous with voting—and not caucus-based activism—Minnesota’s Republican party will struggle to find the chance to recruit new volunteers, says Heaney.

“These are not lifelong, committed Republicans who prayed the Reagan Creed growing up,” he says. “A lot of them are young and [have] ideas that the party needs to at least encounter if it’s going to stay relevant in our changing world.”

Harvey worries that a Republican Party that’s out-of-step at the national level will hurt local elections too.

“If the party stagnates,” he says, “no matter how hard I work, I won’t be able to get good people elected.”

The party decided

Image for article titled How the Republican elite tried to fix the presidency and instead got Donald Trump
Image: Flickr user Tony Webster, licensed under (CC BY-SA 2.0); image has been cropped

Just as the Ron Paul insurgency is often mentioned as an embarrassing blight to the Republican brand, it’s seldom you hear anyone mention the GOP’s deepening divisions as anything but a weakness. Yet as Minnesota’s experience shows, grassroots challenges to the GOP mainstream can wind up strengthening the party in the long haul by bringing more—and different—people into the fold.

Will Trump’s legacy for the Republican Party be similarly salubrious? That likely depends less on the candidate himself than on his supporters—or, more specifically, how the party empowers them.

This isn’t to argue that the unbound-delegate caucus system is superior to the popular vote. It’s simply that in Minnesota, at least, the changes wrought in Tampa—and capstoned by the state’s new primary bill—shuffled the incentives to take part in the Republican Party. In time, new ways of channeling grassroots energy and giving would-be members a say in their party’s priorities surely will evolve.

The Minnesota GOP has already suffered at least one casualty, though. When Marianne Stebbins returned to Minnesota after the clash in Tampa she found her partisan enthusiasm had ebbed. She attended a few party events and caucused in 2014. After that, though, with the exception of a couple of city council races, Stebbins stopped volunteering altogether. On March 1 of this year, she sat out her precinct caucus. And though she isn’t totally sure yet, she’ll probably vote Libertarian in November.

“It’s funny, it’s only been recently that I’ve said, ‘I’m not a Republican,’” Stebbins says. “It’s really hard to break that tie—I mean, I was born Republican.”

Image by Flickr user Jayel Ahera, (licensed under CC BY 2.0); image has been cropped. Poster of Tampa national convention by Flickr user Mike Licht (licensed under CC BY 2.0). Photo of Ron Paul sidewalk graffiti by Flickr user David Drexler (licensed under CC By 2.0); image has been cropped. Photo of Minneapolis GOP headquarters by Flickr user Tony Webster (licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0); image has been cropped. 

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