Today (June 7) is the last day to register to vote in UK’s referendum on its membership in the EU, which will take place on June 23. Per usual, people are scrambling before the deadline. More than 220,000 registered to vote yesterday alone, two-thirds of them under the age of 34.
This is crucial. When registration closes, the vote will come down to which groups turn up in the greatest numbers on the day.
Opinion polls suggest that the vote will be close. A YouGov poll, published on June 6, says 43% will vote to remain and 42% will vote to leave. But an ICM poll, published the day before, says 43% will vote to remain and 48% will vote to leave.
With margins so close, the strength of turnout among key demographics could swing it either way. According to the polls, young people are strongly in favor of staying in the EU; the elderly want out. Londoners are for staying in; the north of England wants out. Supporter of the Liberal Democrats are the most pro-EU; UKIP voters are the most vehemently against.
We delved into the details of recent polls, breaking out these groups by their voting intentions. (Or what they tell the pollsters, anyway.) The strength of feeling for or against remaining in the EU is measured by the share of people who say they will vote “in” less those who will vote “out,” excluding the people who say they don’t yet know how, or whether, they will cast a vote later this month.