It’s worth noting that FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus model is a bit of an outlier here. Other models have been much more sanguine for Clinton’s chances. The New York Times model projects a 69% chance that Clinton will win in November, while Princeton Election Consortium puts those odds between 69% and 79%.

One other interesting note about an election held today: Gary Johnson, who is running as Libertarian Party candidate, would claim 8.1% of the popular vote, according to FiveThirtyEight. Sucking up some of Johnson’s vote is crucial for Clinton; in the poll-plus forecast, her win in the popular vote comes almost entirely from drawing away a bigger share of would-be Johnson supporters than Trump. Of course, we don’t need model-divining to tell us what will happen if those voters stick with Johnson. In 2000, Al Gore lost the election because tens of thousands of would-be Gore supporters voted for Ralph Nader instead.

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