There are 1.5 billion reasons why Boeing might have a strike on its hands

Recent analyst research lays out the stakes of a big union's compensation ask

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Even though its plate is otherwise very full, Boeing BA+1.64% will also have to contend with another big item thrown onto it. As a contract with the union representing its machinists comes up for renewal, the company might soon have a strike on its hands.

Barron’s recently highlighted a research note from Sheila Kahyaoglu, an analyst at Jefferies, that suggests that the 40% raise requested by District 751 of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers would add 2% to the planemaker’s cash needs, or $1.5 billion more than its current baseline.

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This is the first time that Boeing is negotiating a full contract with IAM 751 since 2008 — and workers went on strike before a deal was reached. The union’s 30,000-plus workers have been working on the same contract for more than a decade, which has been merely extended in the interim. The union says voting on a potential contract will begin later this month.

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During an earnings call in July, outgoing Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun said that a work stoppage is the last thing it wants: “We’re not afraid to treat our employees well in this process,” he told analysts and investors. “So, we’re just going to work as hard as we can not to have a strike.”

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That month, the union approved including a strike to its portfolio of negotiation tools with 99.9% of members voting in favor. The September edition of the union’s in-house newspaper had a frequently-answered-questions section related to logistics for a potential work stoppage. It also featured a rallying cry from District 751 president Jon Holden:

“The company should want to take care of its workforce so that we can succeed together,” he wrote before referencing to the company’s ongoing door plug blowout scandal. “Not too long ago, Boeing had a reputation for greatness, setting the bar in the aerospace industry with cutting-edge products. Our Members shared that pride, knowing our livelihoods and legacy were, and still are, tied to every plane that leaves the factory.”