🌏 Waiting game

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ByQuartz Staff

PublishedYesterday

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Image for article titled 🌏 Waiting game — Photo: Chip Somodevilla (Getty Images)

Good morning, Quartz readers!

Here’s what you need to know

Cool story. The Consumer Price Index data from April was just released — and it has a lot to say about the state of the economy, including that inflation has cooled slightly… for now.

Truce or dare?

Markets cheered this week as inflation cooled and the U.S. and China declared a 90-day ceasefire in their tariff tango. The CPI slowed to 2.3% annually in April, marking three straight months of downward movement and bringing inflation closer to the Fed’s golden 2% goal.

So… rate cuts soon? Don’t bet your adjustable mortgage on it.

Despite the rosier outlook and a president eager for cheaper borrowing, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will almost certainly keep waiting. Goldman Sachs now expects rate cuts no sooner than December. And others agree that unless inflation falls cleanly and recession risks spike, the Fed’s bench-warming strategy will hold.

Blame sticky prices, volatile tariffs, and a macroeconomic crystal ball clouded by stagflation fears. Powell continues to suggest that patience is policy. Translation: Until inflation looks tame and sustainable, interest rates are staying right where they are. Quartz’s Shannon Carroll has more on the fine art of doing nothing — central bank edition.

Curbing appetites and earnings

GLP-1 drugs aren’t just reshaping waistlines — they’re reshaping bottom lines.

Semaglutide-based drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy are blockbuster hits in the weight-loss world, with one in eight U.S. adults on board and pharma profits skyrocketing. But what might be good for the scale is definitely bad for the snack aisle.

Studies show users are cutting back on soda, chips, baked goods, and even nights out. Morgan Stanley predicts a 3% drop in junk food consumption by 2035. A Cornell study found grocery spending in GLP-1 households dropped over 5% in just six months. Snack sales aren’t the only casualty: Eating out and drinking alcohol are also in decline.

Food companies are bracing. Novo Nordisk’s CEO says execs from Big Food are already calling him — not for a prescription, but for survival tips. And while traditional snack makers lose sleep, protein-rich and health-focused brands may get a boost. Meanwhile, semaglutide’s ambitions are expanding. Quartz’s Catherine Arnst has more on how GLP-1s rewrote the menu — and the market forecast.