All good things must come to an end (except the fight against climate change). And so this newsletter, dear readers, will be our last edition of The Race to Zero Emissions.
We’re letting go of R2Z to make more time for reporting on the impacts of climate change and energy on the world, which we plan to write about as much as ever. Tim and I will have more time to dedicate to Quartz’s daily coverage, and to work on projects like Leeside, our vision of America’s first climate haven.
As we confront climate migration, the energy transition, and red skies from raging wildfires, the climate story is only becoming more important. We promise to keep you informed and up to speed on the most crucial developments. On Twitter, you can follow Tim’s reporting (and his dog Babs), plus my own reporting (and experiments in personal climate action). And to keep getting Quartz in your inbox, make sure you’re signed up for our morning update on the global economy, the Quartz Daily Brief.
Thanks to all of you for reading week after week, and for sending excellent and insightful feedback. Thanks to Akshat Rathi, who launched this newsletter. Thank you for reading our stories and continuing to engage with one of the most important topics of our time. Keep writing us. —Michael Coren & Tim McDonnell
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Finishing the race. The finish line on the race to zero is net zero global emissions by 2050, the target necessary to avert catastrophic global warming. There are still many miles to go, and overall, we’re still running in the wrong direction. Global emissions continue to march steadily upward, despite a temporary drop due to the pandemic. Correcting this trajectory will require a lot of hard work by entrepreneurs, researchers, and policymakers.
Usually we share with you the most recent news on how emissions are increasing or decreasing. This time, we’ll send you off with a (non-comprehensive) list of trends we’re following that might move the needle in either direction.
🔼 Likely to increase emissions
1️⃣ Governments aren’t acting with enough urgency. Even if every country stuck to the promises it made in the Paris Agreement, the world would still drastically overshoot its emissions goals, and few countries have upped their ambitions since then. China’s carbon trading market is continually delayed. President Trump’s rollbacks of environmental regulation could have locked in 1.8 billion metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions by 2035. Only 1% of the $12 trillion pledged globally in pandemic recovery funding targets clean energy and other green initiatives. More money and much tighter restrictions on emissions will be needed.
2️⃣ The oil and gas industry is still entrenched. Despite a nascent appetite for clean energy and the unprecedented crash in oil prices, fossil fuel firms remain committed to their traditional business. New exploration and drilling projects are moving forward in Uganda, Mozambique, California, Mexico, Alaska, and elsewhere. Meanwhile, some oil companies are looking to offset the shrinking market for fuel by drumming up demand for fossil-derived plastic. Industry trade groups continue to spend big on pro-fossil ad campaigns.
3️⃣ The world is still cutting down too many trees. Every year, an area one third the size of Germany is deforested, mostly to clear land for ranching and agriculture. The loss of those trees accounts for up to 10% of humanity’s carbon footprint. Dozens of banks and companies have either missed deadlines to cut deforestation from their supply chains, or not set them at all. It doesn’t help that wildfires, which are made worse by climate change, also have their own huge carbon footprint.
⬇️ Likely to decrease emissions
1️⃣ Carbon-free ways to power and move the world are ascendent. Capital is pouring into clean energy infrastructure: Hydrogen fuel cells, long-distance electric vehicle batteries, nuclear fusion, carbon capture, and other innovations are displacing fossil fuels. Financial markets are also evolving new means of channeling money to clean energy.
2️⃣ Zero-carbon technologies are getting way cheaper. The cost of new solar power installations fell 50% in the US between 2013 and 2018, faster than any other source. R&D investment both from governments and the private sector will accelerate this growth. Renewables get more competitive with fossil fuels every day—especially coal, which is already nearly dead—but planned global clean energy spending still falls short of what’s needed.
3️⃣ Governments and companies are now expected to reach net zero emissions: Europe, California, and the world’s biggest companies are publicly committing to net zero emission by mid-century at the latest. Walmart, the world’s biggest retailer, aims to reach zero emissions from its global operations by 2040. Tech companies, airlines, power utilities, and even (especially) oil and gas companies are now increasingly specific about how they plan to curb their emissions, and are setting more ambitious goals. But many continue to avoid commitments to decarbonize their supply chains.
Additional reporting by Tim McDonnell
Stats to remember
As of Sept. 20, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 411.12 ppm. A year ago, the level was 408.08 ppm.
Have a great week ahead. Please send feedback and tips to tmcdonnell@qz.com and mjc@qz.com.