Given the worsening divisions in the United States, there’s a growing possibility that the country could fall into a civil war, according to Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio — but he thinks a certain blonde pop star could unify the country.
Dalio told the Financial Times in an interview published Thursday that he sees about a 35% to 40% chance that the U.S. could end up in a civil war. “We are now on the brink,” Dalio said. But we “don’t yet know if we will cross over into much more turbulent times.”
Instead of being a bloody battle, Dalio believes this modern-day civil war would be the widening of the chasm within the country’s political system and culture, in which “people move to different states that are more aligned with what they want and they don’t follow the decisions of federal authorities of the opposite political persuasion.”
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He believes the upcoming federal elections will be one of the most consequential in the 74-year-old investor’s lifetime.
The 2024 presidential elections will see another face-off between incumbent Democrat president Joe Biden and former president and presumptive Republican candidate Donald Trump. The health of U.S. democratic institutions were central in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, and will continue to be key in light of the Jan. 6 capitol insurrection carried out by supporters of Trump, who refused to accept Biden’s electoral victory.
Dalio said this year’s elections will test if democracy can work well, and if there will be an acceptance of democratic rules and an ability to work well under those constraints.
With partisanship and discord boiling over during the last few election cycles, Dalio’s attendance at a Taylor Swift concert gave him a glimmer of hope at a future where political leaders unite — rather than divide — citizenry.
“I saw how she brought people of all sorts — and many nationalities — together. It felt like it would have been impossible to fight,” he said. “I say this partly as a joke, but if she ran for president and would listen to great advisers, I’d consider supporting her.”