Reddit is 'funneling in users like a firehose.' Its stock is falling anyway

Reddit's daily active users surged over 50% in the second quarter

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Reddit said Tuesday evening that it’s more than doubled revenue from last year, and users are flocking to the site. But its stock is dropping anyway.

Reddit’s revenue rose 54% to $281 million in the second quarter. The social media site said its daily active users in the U.S. increased nearly 60% from last year, and global daily users grew 51%. Deutsche Bank analysts sent a note to investors Wednesday morning about Reddit’s earnings with the subject line “Funneling In Users Like A Firehose.”

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Reddit had one of the hottest IPOs of the year in an otherwise cool market, and its share price soared as much as 70% upon its stock market debut. Its first earnings report since going public (for the three months ended March 31) beat Wall Street’s expectations, as did its second.

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“Reddit continues to outpace expectations,” they remarked, adding that the company “is displaying the key ingredients for durable revenue growth.”

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But Reddit shares fell as much as about 9% Wednesday afternoon. The drop could be due to a couple of factors. One: Reddit gave mixed signals about its views of the advertising market. Advertising makes up the bulk of Reddit’s income, accounting for $253 million of its second-quarter revenue. Reddit’s third-quarter sales forecast was cautious, according to J.P.Morgan’s Doug Anmuth. Anmuth said the outlook “appears conservative, unless [management] is more worried about health of the ad market than they suggest.” Reddit’s cautiousness going into the third quarter could be spooking investors.

A second potential cause for the stock-price sink is that Reddit’s post-IPO lockup period ends Friday. That means Reddit insiders will be able to cash out their Reddit stock. Wall Street might be worried about a selloff. Anmuth said the lock-up expiration “could create increased volatility” and “pressure shares.”

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Reddit, by the numbers

$281.2 million: Reddit’s second-quarter revenue, up 54% from last year

41%: How much ad revenue increased from last year

59%: Increase in Reddit’s U.S. daily active users in the second quarter from the same period last year

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9%: How much shares sank, hitting a low of $49, in Wednesday trading

$78: Reddit’s 52-week share price high