US gas prices are going down—but the Israel-Hamas war could complicate that

GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan remains optimistic that prices will keep dropping

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Commuter filling the tank at a gas station.
Motorists find relief in falling gas prices.
Photo: BING GUAN (Reuters)

US gas prices continued to drop for the third week in a row, giving drivers and their wallets some relief. The national average price fell to $3.68 per gallon today (Oct. 10) from $3.70 yesterday, according to American Automobile Association (AAA) data.

An analyst predicts that average prices will keep going down and “likely fall under $3.49”—the lowest level since April—in a week’s time, but cautions that the Israel-Hamas war may disrupt this trend.

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“At long last, the decline in gas prices that we’ve been waiting to see has arrived, and the locomotive of falling prices has only recently started on a downhill, gaining momentum,” wrote Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at price tracker GasBuddy, in a blog post.

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Despite the war, De Haan is bullish.

“Even with oil prices rising as a reaction to the attacks, I remain optimistic the national average could decline another 25-45 cents by late November, with prices potentially falling nearly triple that in California,” he wrote.

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California averaged $5.77 a gallon today, one of the highest prices in the nation.

Israeli soldiers move to the Gaza strip on Oct. 10
Israeli soldiers drive in a tank by Israel’s border with Gaza in southern Israel, October 10, 2023.
Photo: RONEN ZVULUN (Reuters)
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Escalation of violence still a concern

Overcoming the shock of Monday’s oil spike, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures have come down slightly below $86 a barrel on Tuesday.

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While oil production hasn’t yet been impacted, De Haan warned that Iran’s potential involvement in the attacks against Israel may bring retaliation in the coming days. Iran is a major oil producer and supplier, so any attacks could shock production.

The Hamas assault came before the historic peace agreement—or “normalization”—between Israel and Saudi Arabia has reached fruition. The Saudis have reportedly offered to boost oil production as a goodwill gesture to secure the deal, according The Wall Street Journal.

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AAA didn’t have a comment on the war, but said it will keep watching for its affect on oil prices.