The market for rare and fine whisky is facing a “downturn of painful proportions,” according to an annual industry report from Scottish financial advisory firm Noble & Co, which comes as the market for luxury goods continues to experience setbacks due to global political and financial instability.
“Declining volumes, falling prices, and a cautious approach from both buyers and sellers have been defining characteristics of the past year,” Duncan McFadzean, the Head of Food & Drink at Noble & Co, wrote in the report’s executive summary.
“However, the inherent appeal of fine whisky, grounded in its heritage, craftsmanship, and collectability, offers reasons for optimism about what we can expect in the future.”
The report largely attributed the decline in both whisky sales and whisky prices to the same factors that contributed to an across-the-board decline in the luxury goods industry. These factors include both a decline in Asian markets and the flattening of sales since the rebound years immediately following the COVID-19 pandemic.
Between September 2023 and September 2024, there was a 16% decline in the volume of rare and fine whisky transactions and an 18% decline in value. Whiskies in the £1,000 to £10,000 bracket ($1,276 to $12,761) saw the sharpest decrease in value this year. In the third quarter, the average price per bottle in this category declined by 25%.
“What we’ve found in the last couple of years is a pretty steady decline in pricing,” said Jonny Fowle, Sotheby’s vice president and global head of whisky, in the report.
Fowle explained that prices shot up for all price ranges before dropping back down in the secondary market. At the same time, however, distillers in the primary market raised their prices but did not decrease them, leading to a major pricing discrepancy between the two markets.
“Anything bought within the last probably five years is a difficult proposition to try and sell at auction. If you bought something in 2020 to 2023, the likelihood is you’ve overpaid,” Fowle said.