Good morning, Quartz readers!
What to watch for today
A sluggish US recovery. The economy is expected to have added fewer jobs in July than in June; unemployment is forecast to slip to 7.5% from June’s 7.6%; and core inflation for June will likely come in below the Fed’s 2% target.
Dell shareholders may finally bite the bullet. Dell shareholders are expected to vote on founder Michael Dell and Silver Lake’s buyout bid, after their request to change voting rules was rejected. Activist investor Carl Icahn has sued Dell (paywall) to prevent more voting delays.
Earnings scorecard. Toyota’s profits are expected to surge over 50% thanks to the weaker yen. Chevron is likely to report lower earnings after rising material and labor costs ate into production and profits. Viacom, Royal Bank of Scotland and Allianz will also report earnings.
A fresh start for Mali? Mali is expecting results from Sunday’s presidential election, originally scheduled for Thursday. The country has endured 18 months of turmoil including a soldier-led coup, an al Qaeda-linked rebel occupation in the north, and French meddling.
While you were sleeping
Edward Snowden won over Russia. The US frenemy defied American warnings and granted the NSA whistleblower asylum, ending his 5-week confinement at Moscow’s Sheremetyevo airport. The US scolded the Kremlin and signaled that president Obama might boycott a presidential summit in September.
Italy’s supreme court stiffed Silvio Berlusconi. The court rejected the former prime minister’s appeal against the verdict handed down by two lower courts sentencing him to four years in jail. Due to his age—Berlusconi turns 77 in September—he will serve only one year through house arrest or community service.
Fabulous Fab was nabbed for securities fraud. In a win for the US Securities and Exchange Commission, a federal jury found former Goldman Sachs trader Fabrice Tourre liable of misleading investors in a mortgage deal that collapsed during the financial crisis. No other big US bank employee has lost a court case related to the crisis.
The European Central Bank held tight. ECB president Mario Draghi suggested the the region’s economy was past the worst, but stressed that the ECB won’t hike rates for a while. “Super Mario” also shied from taking credit for Europe’s economic progress.
Oil companies smarted. Exxon Mobil’s profits fell 57% on weaker refining results, lower production and a big drop in year-over-year quarterly gains. Shell’s earnings plummeted due to higher costs, sabotage at the company’s facilities in Nigeria and a $2.2 billion write-off for its US shale gas business.
Quartz obsession interlude
Gwynn Guilford on why New York’s ban on illegal shark fin trading may do nothing. “Sonja Fordham, president of Shark Advocates International, says that because the fins of various shark species are notoriously hard to tell apart, “There will be a whole lot more wiggle room for undetected finning” of sharks whose fins can pass for smooth dogfish fins. And with that oddly high 12% fin-to-carcass ratio for dogfish, fishermen will be tempted to pile up fins—of smooth dogfish and anything else they catch—until they hit the legal weight limit. In fact, that 12% quota is almost an invitation to illegal finners to keep finning.” Read more here.
Simone Foxman on why global economy may be doomed to lower growth—forever. “Typically, the “aggregate earnings growth rate” of the S&P 500—the average rate at which all companies grow—is 5% at the end of earnings season. So far, it’s at a measly 1.8%, according to Factset. What’s going on? With pressure on China, cash flowing out of emerging markets, and continuing tensions in Europe, no one’s surprised things are sluggish right now. However, a small but prominent group of CEOs, investors, and economists suggest that this isn’t temporary, but the start of a completely new era of slower growth.” Read more here.
Matters of debate
China’s official unemployment rate is a near-worthless measure. 230 million migrant workers and a large surplus agriculture labor force aren’t factored in.
The West is misreading Hassan Rouhani. Iran’s president-elect won’t challenge the conservative clergy or end the nuclear program.
Changing the definition of cancer is no cure. Changing the terminology without improving communication will leave patients sick as well as confused.
Warren Buffett’s son’s claim that philanthropists give with one hand and take with the other is wrong. The argument belies a lack of understanding of both economics and of the extremity of global poverty.
Climate change might make the world a more violent place. Study shows that by 2050, global warming could increase personal crime by 16% and intergroup conflicts by 50%.
Surprising discoveries
US couch potatoes are going digital. Average time spent with digital media per day will surpass TV-viewing time for the first time this year.
No one rides used bicycles in Denmark. With world’s highest hourly wages, repairs could cost as much as $300.
Good looks could save you from bullies. A study shows that workplace bullies tend to pick on colleagues who are considered unattractive.
Queen Elizabeth had a “World War Three” speech ready. It was to be delivered in the event of a nuclear war with the Soviet Union.
South America may soon be covered in dust from the Sahara. Powerful winds are blowing thousands of tons of desert sand over the Atlantic Ocean.
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