The report’s author paints an even more bearish outlook in some scenarios. If the bitcoin price was propped up by Tethers that were just magically created each time the price fell, as the author’s analysis suggests, then the subsequent rallies potentially wouldn’t have been as powerful over the last year. All told, the author believes the price of bitcoin could be just 30% of the price quoted on exchanges during the study period. That means instead of $15,000 in early January, the price of bitcoin should have been $4,500.

There’s one more analysis that suggests the bitcoin price should be even lower. The author extrapolates a linear trend-line for the price starting last April, when Tethers began to be issued in earnest. That trend-line puts the price of bitcoin at just $2,000 instead of $15,000.

“It is highly unlikely that Tether is growing through any organic business process, rather that they are printing in response to market conditions,” the author writes in summary.

The author’s recommendation? An audit showing that every Tether token is backed by a dollar. There’s just one problem: The auditor Tether hired for this purpose, a New Jersey firm called Friedman LLP, is no longer working with the crypto issuer. Quartz contacted Friedman for clarification but did not receive a response. Tether said last week (Jan. 27) that the relationship was “dissolved” when questioned by the industry news source CoinDesk.

While the mystery around Tether deepens, a prolonged bear market might be a chance to clear things up.

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