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Bitcoin is currently facing resistance around the $60,000 mark, and despite earlier predictions by some crypto experts, it appears increasingly unlikely that the top cryptocurrency will reach $100,000 by the end of 2024.
This stagnation is also weighing down the broader cryptocurrency market, which has struggled to achieve significant growth in the past few months. Several factors are contributing to Bitcoin’s stalled momentum, but a key reason is its growing correlation with macroeconomic conditions. As Bitcoin matures, it is becoming more susceptible to the influences of global market dynamics and economic factors, which now play a larger role in shaping its trajectory than in the past.
Bitcoin made a comeback in 2024
Bitcoin made a major comeback in 2024 after suffering through a prolonged crypto winter brought about by FTX’s collapse. It underwent a major technical event known as “the halving” and is increasingly gaining mainstream acceptance. Following the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETFs from the SEC, the leading cryptocurrency peaked at $73,737 in March.
Adam Back, a prominent figure in the crypto world and one of the earliest cypherpunks who helped establish Bitcoin’s ideological foundation, said Bitcoin’s rise to the $100,000 mark is long overdue and should happen soon.
However, it appears unlikely that the leading cryptocurrency will reach the $100,000 mark or even come close to it in 2024. This is primarily due to the complexities involved, making it a challenging feat to achieve.
Crypto expert Noelle Acheson believes that Bitcoin can cross the $100,000 mark—it’s just not likely to happen this year. In an email, she told Quartz that if the political uncertainty is resolved favorably—for example, if former President Donald Trump wins in November or if Vice President Kamala Harris expresses support for crypto development—then it is certainly possible, especially given the likelihood of an easing interest rate cycle.
“I’m not saying it will happen [this year], just that it’s not an outrageous prediction.”
Jag Kooner, Head of Derivatives at the crypto exchange Bitfinex LEO-0.65%, echoed Acheson’s statement by saying that, based on historical patterns and the expectations set by events like halvings, Bitcoin could reach $100,000.
“However, these forecasts often fail to account for unexpected macroeconomic shifts, the market’s maturation, and changes in investor behavior,” he stated in an email.
Blame halving for Bitcoin’s resistance?
After the Bitcoin halving in April, which reduced mining rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency did not experience the significant price surge seen in previous halvings.
Acheson noted that halving events often lead to a temporary decline in Bitcoin’s price in the months that follow, so the current sluggishness is not unexpected. However, this year presents a unique set of circumstances.
“This year is weaker than other cycles, however, most likely due to the political factors and to the AI frenzy,” she added.
Kooner attributed the current market’s complexity to various factors, including institutional investment patterns, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic conditions affecting Bitcoin price performance.
“There is always a ‘buffer period’ post halving that usually occurs,” he added.
“While the immediate aftermath of the halving has seen some volatility, this period might represent a typical post-halving re-accumulation phase, which has been observed in previous cycles.”
What’s the price prediction for Bitcoin in 2024?
Acheson refrained from making specific price predictions for Bitcoin in 2024 but highlighted an intriguing historical pattern. She pointed out that between the end of August and December 2020, following the previous halving, Bitcoin’s price surged by 270%. Within the same time frame, for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of this year, it would only need to rise by 70%, she said.
Kooner considers the $63,000 to $65,000 range crucial for Bitcoin’s market dynamics. He views Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its price above or below this level as a key indicator of market strength, as it reflects the cost basis for short-term holders and ETF buyers.
“We also expect some traditional finance de-risking and a sell-the-news event causing a price decline post the actual rate cut in September. However, as long as equities hold up well in Q4 2024, we expect the consolidation period to be over by then,” he added.