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A planned dividend
In a 1998 interview with Fortune magazine, management guru Peter Drucker said, “Demographics are the single most important factor that nobody pays attention to, and when they do pay attention, they miss the point.” Drucker was being prescient about the implications of the developed world’s aging population.
But those words might just have well come from former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo who we interviewed recently in New York. The former leader of Africa’s most populous country says demographics are at the heart of the myriad of challenges African countries need to address. It’s the crux of his new co-authored book: Making Africa Work; A Handbook.
The ex-president points to the fact Africa’s population is set to double to 2.4 billion by 2050 even as the continent’s problems with poverty, joblessness and health issues mount. “We will be in a more frightful situation than we already are today unless we stop doing business as usual,” he says.
Since 1960, around when many African countries gained independence, the population of most of those countries would have grown by ten times by 2050. Except one, points out Obasanjo, Niger Republic, with a population of 3.4 million in 1960 would have grown by 20 times at current rates to 68 million in 2050.
Obasanjo is doubtful that without planning African countries can benefit from their faster-growing, younger populations even as most of the developed world gets older. He argues that without measures put in place to support food security, education and healthcare delivery, Africa’s so-called demographic dividend becomes a liability.
Making Africa Work highlights the rapid urbanization we’ve discussed here, as these growing numbers of young people continue their shift from rural areas. The problem is this expansion hasn’t correlated with economic growth. While a city like London has doubled in population every 35 years, some African cities are doubling every 10 years.
For Obasanjo and his co-authors, this isn’t a discussion about birth control or actions to be taken at some point in the future. It’s about preparing African economies today for the coming demographic reality. “Waiting until populations have substantially increased will mean that leaders will only be able to offer measures that come too late for their unemployed citizens.”
And as the ex-president says, none of this will happen without visionary leadership. “You need leaders that are sufficiently confident, knowledgeable and strong enough to be to actually put strong institutions in place.”
— Yinka Adegoke, Quartz Africa editor
Stories from this week
Crowdfunding startups are helping Nigeria’s middle class turn to farming. A majority of farmers in Nigeria are smallholders who use their small agricultural land to earn a living. Yomi Kazeem writes about the new crop of crowdfunded farming startups getting middle-class Nigerians to farm—without getting their hands dirty.
African entrepreneurs have made Guangzhou a truly global city. Guangzhou has rapidly risen to become the commercial center of southern China. In an excerpt from his forthcoming book, “The World in Guangzhou,” Gordon Mathews explores the lives and trade of African entrepreneurs who call the city home.
Cobalt miners are leaving DR Congo and its troubles for Canada and Europe. DR Congo is the world’s leading source for cobalt, which is in hot demand for making smartphones and electric cars. But the country’s deteriorating investment and political climate is pushing mining companies to leave in droves, writes Lynsey Chutel.
International lobbyists, data firms and spin doctors are shaping Africa’s politics. In the last decade, major PR and lobbyist firms have opened offices across Africa to offer communications for local companies, but the big bucks are with governments. However, as some unethical conduct is exposed, they’re being slammed for being a bad influence.
How African cuisine will go mainstream in Western cities. The migration of Africans to Europe and the United States has introduced dishes from Morocco, Ethiopia, and Nigeria in global hubs like Paris and London. But as Khanya Mtshali reports from New York, African cuisine is yet to become conventional because of stereotypes associated with African countries.
Uganda’s doctors and nurses are seeking greener pastures—in war-torn Libya. Since the death of Muammar Gaddafi, Libya has remained a chaotic nation at the center of a refugee and migrant crisis. For Ugandan medics, faced with unemployment and poor pay, Amy Fallon in Kampala finds that it’s one of the few hopes for a better tomorrow.
It’s time to consider a hidden cost of “leapfrog” innovation in Africa. Disruptors, like ‘Uber for blood’ drone company Zipline, have revolutionized how essential services could be delivered in African countries. But while a high-tech fix looks great for venture capitalists or politicians’ manifestos, it dissuades some governments from the vital effort of investing in infrastructure, argues Jennifer Foth.
Chart of the week
Internet shutdowns in Africa are more expensive than we thought. When African governments shut down the internet or block access to social media platforms, it has been hard to accurately approximate the impact on economic growth. But as Abdi Latif Dahir reports, new data show the shutdowns are taking a wider toll on economies than previously estimated, including the informal sector.
Other Things We Liked
Could the legalization of marijuana benefit poor farmers in South Africa? In rural areas in South Africa, farmers grow marijuana to escape poverty but can find themselves in prison because the plant is yet to be legalized. In the Daily Maverick, Dave Martin argues that talks of marijuana legalization should allow poor farmers to harvest the weed.
These startups in Senegal want to bring music streaming to west Africa. With Apple’s iTunes and Spotify officially unavailable in west Africa, a group of Senegalese startups is building their own music streaming platforms. Reporting from Dakar, Reuters Nellie Peyton explains how the growth in smartphone usage and mobile connectivity could make this a reality.
Keep an eye on
Mauritius and Tanzania inflation data to be released (Oct. 2 & Oct. 6). Even though inflation has been falling in Mauritius, the central bank recently cut repo rates in order to stimulate the economy. Amid a slowdown in food and commodity prices, Tanzania’s inflation rate has also been falling.
Our best wishes for a productive and thought-filled week ahead. Please send any news, comments, suggestions, spare cobalt and pretty much any African food to africa@qz.com. You can follow us on Twitter at @qzafrica for updates throughout the day.
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