Hi Quartz readers,
There’s one week left for COP26 negotiators to agree on the next steps to save the planet and those of us who live on it. Headline-grabbing announcements are over; now it’s down to brass tacks. Here’s what we’re watching:
- First glimpse of the final outcome: COP26 organizers released a first draft (pdf) of “1/CP.26,” the statement that will summarize the summit’s outcomes and next steps. The specific wording of this document (the words “fossil fuels” don’t appear) will be one of the hottest points of contention this week.
- Climate liability: Events on Nov. 8 focused on “loss and damage,” the notion that rich countries should pay for unpreventable economic losses from climate change in poor countries. The formal process to facilitate this transfer exists only on paper, without any dedicated UN staff, and is almost entirely unfunded.
- “COP is a cop-out”: Unions, farmers, indigenous rights groups, and Scotland separatists were among the massive crowd that braved cold and rain to march through Glasgow on Nov. 6 demanding more urgent climate action from global leaders. “The COP has a lot of pretty words,” Lola Laenen, a university student in Belgium, told Quartz. “But we have faith in the people organizing out here.”
By the digits
100,000: Estimated number of protestors at a Saturday march for climate action in Glasgow
290: Brackets indicating text under negotiation in Article 6, which sets rules for a global carbon market. This has to reach zero before negotiations can conclude.
$400 billion: Estimated annual cost of loss and damage by 2030, according to one study
£1 million ($1.4 million): Scotland’s contribution to loss and damage funds, the first and only such contribution so far
503: COP26 attendees with links to the fossil fuel industry, greater than any national delegation
10.9 billion tons: Estimated overshoot of actual global emissions compared to countries’ stated emissions cuts, according to a new Washington Post analysis
The elephant in the atmosphere
There’s no path to avoiding the catastrophic impacts of climate change without China (pdf) transitioning away from coal. But as Chinese officials frequently point out, it’s the US whose path to industrialization produced the lion’s share of historic emissions.
During COP26, there were high expectations that the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases would lead by proposing a bold plan to curb coal use. Instead, China’s leader Xi Jinping has failed to appear at the climate talks, and the country’s emission reduction plan still lacks details.
Even more revealing, China has spent the run-up to the climate summit on a coal plant building spree. It’s reopening shuttered coal mines amid an unprecedented energy shortage, and is planning or developing 247 additional gigawatts of coal power (nearly six times Germany’s entire coal fleet). That’s cast doubt on China’s climate commitment over the need to keep factories running and homes heated.
But COP26 isn’t the only place to make climate progress. China is already a world leader in renewable energy, and in recent years, drove an electric vehicles boom with generous government subsidies. After all, China sees climate change as a business opportunity for its industries as well.
It stands to make a lot of money: The transition to a low-carbon economy could increase China’s GDP by 5%. And a summer of flash floods and high air pollution is a reminder that it faces the same challenges as the rest of the world: Overshoot the Paris pledge to keep global temperatures from rising beyond 1.5°C, and China will have to contend with a world engulfed in climate disasters.
Quotable
“We have not done nearly enough to address this crisis… There are times I’m doubtful humanity can get its act together before it’s too late, and images of dystopia start creeping into my dreams. But cynicism is the recourse of cowards, and we can’t afford hopelessness.” —former US president Barack Obama, speaking to COP26 on Nov. 8.
Who’s at the table?
COP26 is meant to provide a place for leaders, policymakers, NGOs, activists, and corporations to debate the intricacies involved in preventing catastrophic global warming. Whether that is achieved depends a lot on who is and isn’t at the table. With this in mind, Quartz analyzed the provisional list of participants. Who did we find?
🇨🇳 There are 60 delegates from China, the world’s largest emitter, and 🇧🇷 479 from Brazil.
💾 The CEO of Microsoft Denmark is in attendance.
🍔 Four people representing McDonald’s, 🛒 and three people on behalf of Walmart.
Now, explore the list of all 28,000 people yourself!
These climate tech startups are (trying to) decarbonize the world. Quartz rounded up 22 companies that track how much CO2 a person or a business might emit and provide a marketplace for buying and selling carbon credits. You’ll need a membership to view the full list—but you can get 40% off with the code COP26.
The countries most liable for loss and damage
In many cases, poorer countries that have produced almost nothing in the way of greenhouse gas emissions will be the most impacted by climate change. Rich countries, and the US in particular, bear the heaviest responsibilities as the world’s largest carbon emitters. If the US were to accept liability for the “loss and damage” caused by its historical emissions, it could owe at least $2 trillion to the hardest hit nations.
👀 what’s next
🧮 Breaking negotiation deadlocks: Negotiators are making little progress on rules for carbon markets. Brazil is threatening to stymie the entire process by insisting that it be allowed to count carbon credits that it sells against its own carbon budget, so-called “double-counting” that is a red line for other negotiators.
💸 New fundraising target: Even though rich countries have repeatedly failed to meet their commitment to raise $100 billion per year for climate adaptation and emissions cuts in poor countries, this week delegates could set a new, higher goal for 2025. Gabon is proposing $1.3 trillion annually.
⏰ A push for earlier climate deadlines: Under the current Paris Agreement rules, countries are supposed to publish their progress toward climate targets, and set new ones, every five years. The US and several developing country negotiating blocs are pushing for that timeline to be ramped up to every one or two years.
One 🎵📈 thing
“The Four Seasons,” one of the most well-known orchestral pieces of the 18th century, has been recomposed with a climate twist. Using climate modeling data from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, composers, climate scientists, and computer programmers reimagined Vivaldi’s work for seasons in 2050, calling it “The [uncertain] Four Seasons.” The online experience launched last week at a COP26 fringe event, and includes performances by orchestras around the world, including from Saskatoon, Canada and Nairobi, Kenya.
Keep learning
- Barack Obama’s message to young people at COP26: “Stay angry”
- The pandemic barely dented the huge rise in carbon emissions since 1990
- US climate tech investments since the Paris Agreement eclipse the rest of the world by billions
- Africa offers high returns on climate-smart investment
- Rich countries can’t fix supply chains without fixing climate finance
- Brazil is failing to stop illegal logging of the Amazon
Our best wishes for a net-zero day. Get in touch with us at needtoknow@qz.com and live your best Quartz life by downloading our iOS app and becoming a member. Today’s email was brought to you by Tim McDonnell, Aurora Almendral, Amanda Shendruk, John Detrixhe, Michael Coren, and Liz Webber.