Hello Quartz readers,
Over the weekend, we’ll be keeping an eye on trade routes, the coronavirus test supply, and travel industry fallout. We also want to know what’s on your mind, so don’t hesitate to send questions, thoughts, or your weird uncle’s Covid-19 conspiracy theories to needtoknow@qz.com. Let’s get started.
Testing our patients
If you’re biting your nails about anything this week (major face-touching!), it’s probably the WHO’s statement that the worldwide mortality rate for confirmed Covid-19 cases is 3.4%. That’s on the high end of past estimates, which ranged from 0.7% to 4%. In a press briefing, WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus noted that “by comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.”
Ghebreyesus isn’t alone—everyone likes comparing Covid-19 to the flu. There’s comfort in understanding how the new coronavirus stacks up against the viral devil we know, which can cause up to 5 million severe cases and 650,000 deaths worldwide every season.
But influenza has been around for centuries. Calculating the Covid-19 death rate is new, complicated, and very much a work in progress. To get it exactly right, every country would need to test the same proportion of its population using the same criteria, with perfect patient-tracking and information-sharing.
In reality, every country is at a different stage of testing, and using inconsistent criteria. During the February surge in Hubei province, doctors confirmed cases without tests. Last week, Singapore claimed it was the first to test for antibodies against the virus rather than its genetic material, an approach that can pick up cases even once the virus is gone. In the US, coronavirus testing that was previously offered to a limited number of people will now be available to anyone with a doctor’s OK. Even if the supply of tests is limited, the number of confirmed cases in the US is likely to see a sudden spike, which would increase the denominator in the mortality rate and drive that figure down—for a little while, at least.
In other words: As with death, don’t stress the death rate until things get a little more definitive.
What you can pay attention to is comparative risk. One of the biggest studies of Covid-19 yet, tracking over 44,000 confirmed cases in China, found no deaths in kids under the age of 10. Mortality rates did increase with every age group, though, with a rate of 14.8% in adults 80 and older. Those figures aren’t gospel, but they can help calibrate your internal risk barometer.
Just to be clear
It’s not only your relatives: Coronavirus disinformation and conspiracy theories are proliferating online. For the love of Louis Pasteur, let us help.
- No, 5G doesn’t cause coronavirus.
- No, you can’t use Vitamin C to treat coronavirus.
- No, elections aren’t being canceled.
- No, vodka cannot be used as hand sanitizer.
- No, Taiwan’s government isn’t staging a cover-up.
- No, you can’t get coronavirus from your dog.
How’s your work-virus balance?
We’ve been hearing a lot about large companies implementing new policies in response to coronavirus fears. IBM suspended all domestic travel for internal meetings. Google is doing job interviews via Hangouts. Trader Joe’s is updating its sick-leave policy. What’s less clear is how small- and mid-size companies, without the infrastructure to roll out a massive contingency plan, are preparing, or if they’re able to.
Does your place of work have a coronavirus contingency plan?
- Nope, or at least not that I know of.
- Sort of—wash your hands and restrict travel.
- Yes, a thorough and extensive one.
✉️ Care to elaborate? Drop us a line.
Covid-0019
This week, MGM and Universal Pictures announced that the April release of the upcoming James Bond film, No Time to Die, will be postponed until November due to the coronavirus outbreak. While this kind of late-breaking delay is highly unusual, the studios have little choice: Thousands of theaters in China remain shuttered, and no one knows when they will reopen.
Why care about one movie franchise? Because it could be a prequel for the fate of other blockbusters. China is the world’s second-largest film market after the US, and the financial implications of missing out on it are huge:
- $250 million: Amount No Time to Die would lose if it were released next month as planned
- $2 billion: Amount the Chinese box office has lost since closing theaters in January
- $5 billion: Estimates for how much the global box office has already lost
- 70,000: Theaters closed indefinitely in China
- $393 million: Amount the last Fast & Furious movie netted in China. The franchise’s next installment, F9, is supposed to be released in May.
Essential reading
- The latest 🌏 figures: 101,601 confirmed cases; 55,863 classified as “recovered.”
- Coolcoolcool: Scientists were close to a vaccine for SARS—in the same family as this virus—years ago.
- Rule of tongue: Don’t lick mail-in ballot envelopes.
- Quarantine for the 1%: Private jets and personal ERs.
- Pro tip: How to politely decline a handshake.
- Interesting opinion: Coronavirus could be “the reason we survive as a species.”
- Emo opinion: The coronavirus is us.
Our best wishes for a healthy day. Get in touch with us at needtoknow@qz.com, and live your best Quartz life by downloading our app and becoming a member. Today’s newsletter was brought to you by Katie Palmer, Max Lockie, Adam Epstein, and Kira Bindrim.