Dear readers,
Welcome to Quartz’s newsletter on the economic possibilities of the extra-terrestrial sphere. Please forward widely, and let me know what you think. This week: A Congress that isn’t supposed to be this political, a Blue Moon consortium and Starlink in action.
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“There are probably a lot of spies in here,” a space policy expert told me, waving his hand at the bustling lobby in front of the International Astronautical Congress’ exhibition hall. The annual conference is a key venue for space scientists, entrepreneurs and policymakers from around the world to share research and coordinate exploration—and for those of us who want to know what those plans are.
I had asked about the US decision to refuse visas to officials from China’s space agency. China’s foreign ministry has accused the US of “weaponizing” visas; the US State Department has not responded to that allegation. It’s not clear if the decision resulted from bureaucratic incompetence, real security concerns, an attempt to gain leverage in trade talks, ongoing friction around diplomatic freedom of movement, or something else entirely. To be sure, there are real concerns about China stealing US technology.
But compare this to the 2013 edition of the conference, held in Beijing. While there were complaints about the speed of issuing visa paperwork, then-NASA administrator Charles Bolden made it to the conference on time, and even struck some deals on scientific cooperation.
The opening speech at this year’s conference, delivered by US vice president Mike Pence, surprised some foreign attendees, particularly his reference to partnering with “freedom-loving nations” in space. They thought it an unusual proposal from a country whose biggest space partner is Russia, and whose foreign policy is not necessarily driven by concerns for human rights or civil liberties. Russian nationals also had trouble obtaining visas to attend the conference, in some cases with less mystery—the head of the Russian space agency was sanctioned by the US after Russia seized Crimea in 2014.
Previously, the US used cooperative international space projects in part to demonstrate how secure it is in its technological prowess. That soft power wasn’t exactly on display in the nation’s capital this week.
What’s different today than in 2013, besides rising geopolitical tensions, is that China is flying to space more often than the US, or indeed any other country. That’s not the best metric for a national space program, but it is a signal of investment. If you’re going to be getting together with the global space powers—an event where cooperation and coordination will be even more vital as more spacecraft are launched—it’s tough to get much done without a major member of the club. One loss this week was a planned Chinese-American meeting to talk about the dangers of space debris.
Perhaps the biggest theme of the conference is lunar exploration—have I mentioned that people are psyched about going back to the moon? But a coherent international agenda appeared to be absent. NASA’s Artemis program, which is trying to put astronauts on the lunar surface in 2024, has attracted some international cooperation, but increasing political uncertainty in the US has made that target date unlikely. So far, the role for other nations is contributing hardware to get two Americans back on lunar regolith. Later, that infrastructure could be used to carry astronauts from other places.
There’s still time to see a more evolved vision for what international cooperation on the moon will look like—many European visitors mentioned that they’d like to see more US attention to the idea of the Moon Village, a nonprofit that wants to promote a global approach to lunar exploration. China also has plans to go to the moon, and will also be soliciting international partners. Compared to orbit around the Earth, the moon is a gray area, literally and legally. Figuring out how to work together will be more important than ever.
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Imagery interlude
Questions voted on by attendees were displayed above the heads of the various national space agencies during a panel discussion on Oct. 21, demonstrating the ability of new technology to at least visualize the elephant in the room, even if it doesn’t force anyone to address it.
The panel answered the China question, blaming a dubious scheduling problem, but nobody weighed in on freedom-loving nations. At a later press conference, NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine said he’d be interested in seeing astronauts of all nationalities head for the moon, but the goal is for the initial crew to consist of Americans.
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SPACE DEBRIS
I’m so sorry:
🎶Bezos was standing alone,
without an ascent stage,
without GNC of his own.
Blue Moon, you knew just what he was there for,
you heard him saying a prayer for,
a consortium to care for,
And then suddenly appeared before him,
the only one his arms will hold.
I heard Lockheed whisper “Please adore me,”
And when I looked, the moon had turned to gold!🎶
US Air Force tests Starlink. SpaceX doesn’t do booths at the space conference, but the company made some news after founder Elon Musk hopped on the internet via a satellite antennae on the roof of his house that connected to the nascent Starlink constellation, now about 59 satellites but someday perhaps as many as 42,000. While a consumer product could be available in the US as soon as the middle of 2020, it’s interesting that the US Air Force has been testing the network since 2018 through a program called Global Lightning. The network can deliver test data to the cockpit of a C-12 transport plane at a rate of 610 megabits per second—more than 10 times faster than the wired connection I’m using right now.
Moon riders. If you’re a launch vehicle company, you need a moon mission on the books. This week, small launcher Rocket Labs and European champion Arianespace joined United Launch Alliance, Boeing and SpaceX in the category.
Unresponsive Launch. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is holding a $10 million contest to find companies that can launch satellites on short notice from nearly anywhere. Now, two of the three finalists have dropped out of the competition. One, Vector, went out of business, while another, Virgin Orbit, apparently has too much commercial work to focus on the contest. That leaves one stealth company, believed to be Astra Space, in the running.
Space Force Priorities. I got a chuckle out of the news that the White House is urging the Pentagon to begin preparing visuals, flags and seals for the still hypothetical Space Force, without knowing whether Congress will pass a law to enact it.
Your pal,
Tim
This was issue 20 of our newsletter. Hope your week is out of this world! Please send your most lurid tales of global space intrigue, American standards revised as space musical numbers, tips and informed opinions to tim@qz.com.