The Fed, Juneteenth, Accenture, CarMax: Stocks and events to watch this week

Last week, the U.S. and China concluded their London talks with what appeared to be modest tweaks to the earlier May trade-war truce, helping ease investor nerves. Inflation came in softer than expected, though economists warned the full impact of tariffs may not show up for another month or two. Oracle and Adobe beat earnings expectations, pointing to continuing enterprise-level demand for AI-powered services. U.S. bonds held strong thanks to a well-received Treasury auction that soothed recent concerns about weak demand.

Still, the week ended on a somewhat downbeat note for markets, with oil prices spiking following Israel’s campaign of air strikes against Iranian nuclear sites.

The coming week promises high-stakes Fed news and a surprising slate of earnings. The Federal Reserve is set to release its latest policy decision and economic projections, while Accenture, CarMax, Kroger, and Darden Restaurants will all report.

Monday, June 16

Monday brings a fresh read on regional manufacturing. At 8:30 a.m. ET, the New York Fed releases its Empire State Manufacturing Survey for June. The previous month’s reading was a steep -9.2, so markets will be watching for signs of recovery or further contraction.

While not typically a market mover on its own, the Empire print hints at broader industrial trends, which are likely to loom larger in a week dominated by Fed news.

Tuesday, June 17

Tuesday kicks off the two-day June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with Wall Street watching closely for, well, absolutely any news at all: hints of a shift, pronouncements about the state of the economy, you name it. This time out, the Fed isn’t expected to cut interest rates. Investors will, however, be laser-focused on the Summary of Economic Projections, also known as the “dot plot,” due out Wednesday. The updated projections will give clues on how many rate cuts (if any) may come in the latter half of 2025.

It’s also a heavyweight morning for economic data. Before the bell, May retail sales arrive alongside retail sales excluding autos, the import price index, and core import prices. Later, the Federal Reserve reports industrial production and capacity utilization, followed by business inventories and the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index.

Wednesday, June 18

The main event is here: At 2:00 p.m. ET, the Federal Reserve will release its latest interest rate decision, along with its Summary of Economic Projections. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will follow with a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET, likely facing questions about inflation, the labor market, and growing anxiety as to U.S. government debt.

Thursday, June 19

Markets will be closed in observance of Juneteenth, the federal holiday commemorating the end of slavery in the United States. With no trading and no major economic data releases scheduled, Wall Street will take a breather after what’s likely to have been a volatile midweek session. Still, expect plenty of continuing Fed coverage and think pieces, even if the markets themselves are shuttered.

Friday, June 20

Before the bell, Accenture reports, giving investors another read on enterprise IT spending and demand for AI-related services. Kroger will also release results, providing a window into grocery inflation, consumer price sensitivity, and the evolving battle between more traditional grocers and discount retailers like Walmart and Dollar General.

CarMax and Darden Restaurants report later in the day. CarMax’s numbers could reveal consumers' appetite for used cars and credit, while Darden (parent company of Olive Garden and other chains) offers a pulse check on breadsticks, merlot, and mid-tier dining. All in all, it should make for a packed, news-heavy close to the week.