India’s deadly second wave of Covid-19 might not peak before June

The prolonged struggle.
The prolonged struggle.
Image: Reuters/Danish Siddiqui/File Photo
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If trends in other countries are anything to go by, India’s Covid-19 nightmare might continue for more than a month.

The second wave of coronavirus is likely to peak only in June, according to research by Hong Kong-based brokerage firm CLSA. The prediction is based on an analysis of 12 countries including the US, Brazil, and the UK which faced a strong resurgence of Covid-19. CLSA found that the second waves in these countries peaked when incremental cases had hit the median of 2% of the population.

“India may take nearly two months to get to incremental infections equal to 2% of its population, from 0.5% currently, during the second wave. Maharashtra is currently at 1.8% and should get to this level in less than a week,” the brokerage estimates.

Image: CLSA

This is bad news for India as the situation in the country is very dire and will become worse if it continues like this until June.

The second wave of Covid-19 in India has been far more damaging than the first one. From 11,000 on Feb. 10, the daily new Covid-19 infections zoomed to more than 370,000 on April 30. Meanwhile, thousands of patients across states are struggling for hospital beds and oxygen.

The death toll also continues to mount. The country is reporting more than 3,000 Covid-19 deaths a day and has breached the 200,000-mark overall. What’s more worrisome is that these grim statistics aren’t even revealing the true picture as there are lapses in the collection of data related to Covid-19 deaths and infections.