Roche expects half of the world's population to be overweight or obese in 10 years, per an executive for the Swiss pharma giant
The global rise in obesity is expected to continue over the coming decade, so much so that Roche’s top leader on weight loss drugs believes that even if multiple upcoming treatments make it to market, they may still not be enough to address a looming health crisis.
This summer, the Swiss pharma giant reported promising clinical trial results for two experimental weight loss drugs, a daily pill and a weekly injectable.
It joins several pharma companies in racing to break up the anti-obesity drug duopoly held by Ozepmic maker Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly $LLY, which produces Zepbound and Mounjaro.
Morgan Stanley $MS analysts anticipate the global market for these drugs, known as incretin medications, will reach $105 billion by 2030. Incretin drugs work by mimicking hormones that regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite. They were originally used to treat type-2 diabetes, but have become highly sought after for their slimming side effects.
The investment bank expects the adoption of these drugs to reach about 31.5 million people in the U.S. alone, about 9% of the nation’s population, by 2035.
However, that is only a fraction of the over 1 billion people around who live with obesity, according to the World Health Organization.
“Despite existing treatment options, the trajectory for people with obesity has not changed significantly — these conditions remain underdiagnosed and undertreated so their impact on society continues to grow and developing different treatment modalities is critical,” said Manu Chakravarthy, the head of global cardiovascular, renal and metabolic product development at Roche, in an email to Quartz.
He added that the company expects half of the world’s population to be overweight or obese in 10 years time.
The 127 year old pharma company first entered the weight-loss drug game earlier this year when it bought Carmot Therapeutics for $2.7 billion; the deal included two drug candidates, CT-996 and CT-388.
Its still early days, but results from early stage clinical trials suggest this bet could pay off.
Roche said in May that patients taking CT-388, a weekly injection, lost 18.8% of their weight on average after 24 weeks on the drug in a small clinical trial.
More recently in July, the company said patients taking CT-996, a daily pill, lost an average of 7.3% of their weight after four weeks in an ongoing early-stage trial.
These finding signal that the drugs could be competitive with existing treatments. For comparison, a clinical trial of Novo Nordisk’s weekly injectable Wegovy found that it helped users lose about 15% of their body weight over 68 weeks.
As a result, the company has said it is fast-tracking the development of its weight loss drug candidates. Its stock has risen over 20% since May.
However, the field could soon become very crowded. Pfizer $PFE, Amgen $AMGN, Zealand Pharma, Viking Therapeutics, and Structure Therapeutics are all developing their own weight loss drugs. In addition, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are already working on next-gen versions of their medications, including new weight loss pills.
Chakravarthy said that Roche is differentiating its weight loss portfolio from the competition by targeting a “broad patient population.” He said the company is also testing the drugs as treatments for weight-related comorbidities including type 2 diabetes. Data from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly suggests that incretins could help with hearth health and sleep apnea.
Chakravarthy also sees having both an injectable and oral treatment as a significant advantage for Roche.
He wrote, “there are patients that may prefer injectables and others might be needle-phobic. One size does not fit all when it comes to anti-obesity medications.
Chakravarthy floated the idea that patients could potentially initiate weight loss with its injectable and then transition to its pill for weight management.
Aside from these possible advantages, Chakravarthy believes there will be room for multiple weight loss drugs in the market due to widespread demand and need.
“So having options and a broad range of therapies to choose from will be critical to meet that demand,” Chakravarthy wrote. “Even if we have 10 drugs on the market, it would still not be enough.”
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