The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) surged over 450 points on Friday afternoon after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that interest rate cuts might happen soon. Speaking at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in Wyoming, Powell hinted at potential rate cuts but didn’t offer specific details on the timing or magnitude.
“The time has come for policy to adjust,” Powell said during his highly anticipated keynote address. “The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”
Stocks had already been in positive territory since the market opened on Friday, and gained further momentum after Powell’s 10 am remarks. By the end of the day, the Dow (DJIA) surged 462 points, or 1.1%, to 41,175. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq $NDAQ (NDAQ) climbed 1.4%, and the S&P 500 rose 1.1%.
As anticipated by banking giants and analysts, Powell addressed inflation, acknowledging that it has fallen significantly and that the labor market is no longer overheated.
“Supply constraints have normalized. And the balance of the risks to our two mandates has changed,” he said, referring to the central bank’s dual mandate to keep inflation in check while also maximizing employment.
The Fed Chair said that with appropriate policy adjustments, there’s optimism for achieving 2% inflation while maintaining a strong labor market. Despite a brief recession, the economy has been growing since mid-2020, avoiding a slow recovery similar to the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis.
Industry leaders liked the Powell’s confidence
Meanwhile, industry leaders are impressed by Powell’s confidence in policy adjustments and his acknowledgment of cooling inflation and a more subdued labor market.
Melissa Brown, Managing Director of Applied Research at SimCorp, told Quartz via email that Powell’s statement—”the time has come for policy to adjust”—was significant. She noted that the Fed Chair’s confidence in a soft landing for the U.S. economy aligns with a scenario that is likely to benefit equity markets.
“If he had been too bearish on economic prospects, implying bigger and/or sooner cuts in rates, this would come at the expense of economic and earnings growth. Alternately, had he been more bullish on the economy, we would have anticipated higher rates and inflation, which also would hurt markets,” she said.
Glen Smith, Chief Investment Officer, GDS Wealth Management, with $1 billion in assets under management, told Quartz in an email that Powell’s speech was not specific about future rate cuts and had all but assured a 25 basis point rate cut in September.
“The September meeting is three weeks away, and there are only a handful of jobs and inflation data points to be released until then, and it’s unlikely that these next few data points will change the Fed’s plans to cut rates by 25 basis points next month,” he said.
He noted that while a September rate cut seems certain, the key question is whether it will be a one-time adjustment or the start of a more extensive cutting cycle. This will depend on economic data over the next two to three months, he added.