Chipmaking giant ASML says it can't be certain of growth in 2026

ASML just crushed this second quarter — and then might have crushed investors’ hopes for 2026.

The Dutch chip-machine powerhouse smashed expectations with €7.7 billion in revenue, €2.3 billion in profit, and €5.5 billion in orders, fueled by booming AI demand and a €2.3 billion haul from its extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems.

But then came the gut punch: While demand for ASML’s AI chips is still red hot, the company said it can’t promise 2026 growth amid President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and the wider geopolitical fog.

“Looking at 2026, we see that our AI customers’ fundamentals remain strong,” ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet said in a statement. “At the same time, we continue to see increasing uncertainty driven by macro-economic and geopolitical developments. Therefore, while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage.”

ASML shares sank as much as 8% in European trading on Wednesday morning and around 10% on Wall Street as of 11 a.m. ET, dragging down other chip stocks and sending tremors through the European tech and semiconductor sectors. Analysts moved quickly. Jefferies downgraded the stock from “Buy” to “Hold,” slashing its 2026 forecast from 7% growth to a potential 2% decline. Barclays flagged signs of softening demand from Intel and Samsung and noted delays in ASML’s rollout of its next-generation High-NA systems — tools that represent the future of ultra-precise chip manufacturing.

Fouquet’s comments are the first time in years that ASML has even hinted that growth might not be a given. And the comments come at a moment when the global semiconductor sector is supposed to be entering its AI-powered golden era. But the geopolitical threat the company faces is real. A 30% U.S. tariff on EU goods, set to take effect on August 1, could push the price of ASML’s top-tier EUV machines from €250 million to €325 million, stalling U.S. factory buys and freezing investment decisions until trade winds calm. ASML frequently ships parts back and forth between Amsterdam and the U.S.

In a pre-recorded interview posted on ASML’s website, Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen said the beat was due to revenue from upgrading currently deployed machines as well as tariffs having a “less negative” impact than anticipated. The Dutch company is ready to pass most of the tariff costs onto customers, Dassen said on a call with reporters. “The burden of tariffs from our vantage point should be allocated in a fair way. ... We think that those taking it in the United States should, therefore, take the lion’s share of that allocation.”

Still, not everything is freezing up. AI-related demand — especially from TSMC and customers in China — remains strong. China alone accounted for 27% of system sales this quarter, despite continued export restrictions imposed by the Dutch government (with no end to them in sight). Plus, ASML’s full-year 2025 forecast remains unchanged, calling for 15% revenue growth. The company’s gross margin hit 53.7% in the second quarter, and its order book remains thick enough to keep its factories humming through the rest of the year.

But 2026 is now a question mark. Not because ASML has lost its technical edge — quite the opposite, actually — but because the world’s most advanced chip tools are caught in the geopolitical crossfire. The race to build chips that power AI, run data centers, and secure geopolitical advantage is colliding with the unpredictable pace of trade wars. ASML can make the tools that shape the future of silicon, but it can’t print a stable global order.