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Tesla (TSLA-2.14%) CEO Elon Musk said on Tuesday that he thinks humanoid robots will outnumber humans in less than 20 years. His company is helping to make that future a possibility.
“I think by 2040, there will probably be more humanoid robots than there are people,” Musk said Tuesday during an appearance at the Future Investment Initiative, an event run by the institute of the same name. The institute was launched in 2017 by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund.
That estimate would put around 10 billion humanoid robots in use around the world. Musk said the price for a “robot that can do anything” would likely cost between $20,000 and $25,000 apiece.
That lines up almost exactly with Musk’s estimates for the cost of Tesla’s Optimus robots, a line of humanoid robots that are being put to limited use by the company. While speaking at the automaker’s “We, Robot” event on Oct. 10, Musk said he expects Optimus to be sold for between $20,000 and $30,000 a piece in the “long term” once production is increased.
Tesla’s history with Optimus is shaky, going back to its infamous 2021 debut that showed off a person dancing in a costume.
At the event earlier this month, the robots performed a range of activities, including handing out gift bags and drinks and playing rock, paper, scissors with attendees. The robots also danced, including to a remix of the song “What is love (Baby Don’t Hurt Me),” and interacted with guests.
Tesla later confirmed that the robots relied on teleoperation — or remote assistance — repeatedly to make Optimus appear more impressive. About 20 robots were active at all times, according to Tesla’s Optimus lead Milan Kovac, with one incident of a robot falling. The company later put out a less than 90-second video demonstrating an Optimus unit placing batteries in a tray, carrying the roughly 24-pound tray, climbing stairs, and handing out bottled drinks and popcorn to employees.
Two robots are already on the factory floor, although Tesla has not said what duties they perform. Musk reiterated on Tuesday that Optimus will enter limited production next year; he’s previously estimated that “a few thousand” robots will be working at Tesla in 2025. Volume production, he said, should begin in 2026 and then “will grow to ultimately be the biggest product of any kind ever,” adding that Optimus will make Tesla a “$25 trillion company.”
Tesla isn’t alone in advancing humanoid robots. Well over a dozen companies are working on similar technology, including Figure AI, Apptronik, Toyota Research Institute, and Boston Dynamics.