As British broadcasters reported live from Westminster the resignation of UK prime minister Liz Truss, a few protesters could be heard in the background shouting: “General election now.”
It’s not an isolated demand. The leaders of the UK’s opposition parties have been asking for a general election since Boris Johnson resigned as PM in July. But it’s not that easy.
Until recently, an election could be called by a parliamentary majority of at least two thirds. But in March 2022 a new law was passed to repeal the 2011 Fixed-term Parliaments Act and restore power with the PM to request the monarch to dissolve parliament, which would then set off the process of a general election. If the UK’s next PM doesn’t call for a general election, the next one won’t be held until late 2024, or even 2025.
A brief history of Tory party leadership elections
July 2016: Theresa May’s last rival to succeed Cameron as leader, Andrea Leadsom, abandons the race after sparking controversies with comments about motherhood and suitability to political leadership. May becomes the UK’s second female prime minister.
April-June 2017: May calls a “snap” election hoping to strengthen her parliamentary majority and pass her Brexit plan. The Conservative party loses seats in parliament, but retains a majority.
May-July 2019: May bids a tearful goodbye to Downing Street as she loses her party’s support. Boris Johnson wins 66% of the Tory members’ preferences against Jeremy Hunt’s 34%, and is appointed prime minister.
November-December 2019: Johnson calls for a general election to increase his majority to pass a Brexit deal. The Tories win 365 of the 650 seats up for grabs, their best result in decades.
July-September 2022: Johnson resigns following a series of scandals undermining his party’s trust in him. Liz Truss wins 21,000 votes more than her rival Rishi Sunak in the Tory leadership election (votes received by both candidates: 141,725), and is appointed prime minister.
October 2022: Liz Truss resigns after losing support of her party due to her handling of economic policy. A Tory leadership election is due to deliver a new prime minister by Oct. 28.
Quotable
Liz Truss’s disastrous time in power has left even some of her fellow party members bitter about the process that brought her into Downing Street. Conservative party MP Charles Walker expressed his disappointment in an interview with the BBC on Oct. 19:
“I hope all the people that put Liz Truss into Number 10, I hope it was worth it, I hope it was worth it for the ministerial red box, I hope it was worth it to sit round the Cabinet table because the damage they have done to our party is extraordinary.
I’ve had enough, I’ve had enough of talentless people putting their tick in the right box, not because it’s in the national interest but because it’s in their own personal interest to achieve ministerial positions.”
Who will run in the Conservative leadership election?
With such a short time to pick a new leader, and in a bid to avoid a general election, the Tories need to find a leader that can enjoy broad support in the party. Each candidate will need at least 100 MPs backing them to take part in the race, and find that support by Monday 2pm local time. Current chancellor Jeremy Hunt has said he will seat out this race, and no candidate as of yet has formally thrown a hat in the ring.
Bookmakers see Truss’s final two rivals as having the best odds to win the vote, but a few other names are making waves.
- Rishi Sunak: A former chancellor of the Exchequer, he won the most preferences to succeed Johnson among Tory MPs, but lost out to Truss in the vote of Tory party members.
- Penny Mordaunt: A finalist in the race to replace Johnson, the current Leader of the House of Commons could must enough support especially if in a joint ticket with Sunak.
- Ben Wallace: The defense secretary sat out the earlier leadership election, but is seen as a steady hand and a respected figure.
- Suella Braverman: The former Home Secretary who was forced to resign yesterday (Oct. 19) from Truss’s government, she’s popular among members of the party’s right wing.
- Boris Johnson: The former prime minister is rumored to be considering a comeback, but his participation in a leadership race would be considered divisive.
Who would win a general election?
The opposition Labour Party took the lead in opinion polls in early December, and that margin has steadily widened in the ensuing months. After the mini-budget was announced on Sept. 23, causing massive market turmoil, Labour’s lead has increased even further—the party is currently predicted to capture more than double the Conservative’s preferences. The UK doesn’t use a proportional voting system, so voting preferences as part of the overall population only tells part of the story.
In the UK’s first-past-the-post system, in which candidates only run for one seat, and only the one with a majority gets elected, location matters too. A party that captures a smaller overall percentage of votes, but wins a majority in several constituencies, could end up having more seats in parliament than one that is voted by lots of people, but in fewer places. In one particularly sensational scenario by political consultancy Electoral Calculus, the Conservatives might not even win enough seats to be the second-largest party in parliament, replaced by the Scottish National Party.
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Correction: An earlier version of this article referred to the 2011 Fixed-term Parliaments Act as being the current law governing elections in the UK. The article has been updated to reflect that the law was repealed in March with the 2022 Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Bill.