An alarming 69% of CEOs said they anticipate that the U.S. will fall into a recession — and they’re placing the blame squarely on President Donald Trump and his tariffs.
More than two in three CEOs predict a recession will hit, likely this year, and fear an inflation resurgence
An alarming 69% of CEOs said they anticipate that the U.S. will fall into a recession — and they’re placing the blame squarely on President Donald Trump and his tariffs.
Trump announced sweeping tariffs on almost every American trading partner last week, which caused stocks to have their worst week since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to a Monday survey conducted by CNBC, CEOs are worried the market’s recent downturn is only the beginning. “This is the Trump recession,” one executive said in the survey.
More than half of respondents said they anticipate that a recession will hit this year — three of four of those who expect a recession said they think the downturn will be moderate or mild, not severe.
Still, more than one-third of respondents said they expect to conduct layoffs this year as a result of the policy. An additional 14% told CNBC (CMCSA) it was too soon to make a decision about layoffs. More than four out of five respondents said they anticipate “resurgent inflation.”
One of the CEOs surveyed anonymously called the president’s trade policy “disappointingly stupid and illogical.” The businessperson added, “Without faith that our government knows what it is doing, it is impossible for businesses to thrive.”
Another CEO said, “Trump has imposed tariffs on component parts that are simply unavailable in the U.S. and never will be. ... He has surrounded himself with an incompetent cadre of yes men and women unable or unwilling to offer him cogent counsel.”
The CEOs said they anticipate that their supplier will have to pay for some of the tariffs and that consumers will pay for the rest.
“We can’t control the impact of tariffs on the consumer mindset, which we imagine could be significant,” one executive said.
One CEO of an American company who is heavily dependent on foreign sales expressed fears over anti-American sentiment internationally.
“The biggest issue I worry about is boycotts of American brands and anti-American sentiment,” the business leader said. “There is real backlash happening.”
Plenty of CEOs are voicing these concerns publicly. JPMorgan $JPM Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sounded the alarm on Trump’s tariffs in his annual letter to shareholders, warning that the trade policy will likely spike inflation and slow down growth.
Meanwhile, billionaire hedge fund manager and Trump supporter Bill Ackman wrote a lengthy post urging the president to hit pause on the trade war or risk crashing the economy.
“We are heading for a self-induced, economic nuclear winter, and we should start hunkering down,” Ackman said.
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