🌏 Driving up demand

Good morning, Quartz readers!

Here’s what you need to know

Hedge and seek. Top execs at Bridgewater Associates issued a dire warning about the lingering trade war, calling it a “once-in-a-generation” economic shift that raises recession risks.

Brace for impact. Major U.S. airlines are hitting turbulence; they’re ditching their 2025 forecasts as the trade war has created “unprecedented uncertainty” and grounded demand.

Shelf-inflicted wounds. The CEOs of Walmart, Target, and Home Depot privately warned President Donald Trump that his tariffs could mean empty shelves in their stores.

The price is fright. Most Americans now think tariffs will mean higher prices and aren’t happy with how Trump is handling the economy, a recent poll found.

Cash of the titans. Corporate spending on AI remains relatively resilient, analysts say, and is “strategically coveted” and defended among CIOs.

Interest-ing drama. The president continues to attack the Federal Reserve chair — saying Jerome Powell is “making a mistake” on interest rates amid Trump’s promises not to fire him.

Gearing Up for Tariffs

U.S. shoppers weren’t just kicking tires in March; they were buying them before tariffs could drive their prices even higher.

According to the Census Bureau, sales of transportation equipment soared 27% last month as Americans raced to buy big-ticket items before the president’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement. Overall orders for durable goods — think: appliances, machinery, autos, computers, and jewelry — jumped 9.2% in March, beating forecasts and resulting in $315.7 billion in sales.

The Federal Reserve, in its latest Beige Book, reported a particular increase in auto sales that can be “generally attributed to a rush to purchase ahead of tariff-related price increases.” Meaning: Buyers hit the gas to beat any potential sticker shock.

Still, the Fed warned, some goods were already climbing in cost before the tariff implications. Even before Trump’s announcement, businesses had started to slap on tariff surcharges and were getting early warning signs from suppliers about price hikes. Quartz’s Kevin Williams has more on how tariffs are affecting shoppers’ credit card bills.

Search Turns Up Solid Results for Google

Google just delivered a big first-quarter earnings win. The tech giant’s Q1 results breezed past most of Wall Street’s forecasts, with $90.2 billion in revenue (versus $89.2 billion expected) and $34.5 billion in net income — a 46% year-over-year jump. That puts earnings per share at $2.81, outpacing the $2.01 EPS that analysts expected.

The main fuel for that fire was the company’s cloud computing and AI businesses and its steady ad revenue. In the earnings report, CEO Sundar Pichai called out the launch of Gemini 2.5, Google’s “most intelligent AI model,” as a major milestone. Meanwhile, Google Cloud revenue soared 28% to $12.3 billion. Quartz’s Shannon Carroll has more on why Gemini definitely isn’t in retrograde.

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